A recent Guardian Essential poll has revealed that a majority of Australians are sceptical about ever receiving the promised nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS security pact, with growing concerns over potential policy changes if Donald Trump returns to the White House.
The survey highlights deepening public doubt about the $368bn defence deal, which was initially hailed as a cornerstone of Australia’s future security strategy. Many respondents fear that political instability in the US, particularly a second Trump administration, could derail the agreement.
Key Findings from the Poll
- 58% of Australians believe the submarines will never be delivered.
- Only 28% express confidence in the AUKUS timeline.
- Concerns are bipartisan, with scepticism spanning across political affiliations.
Experts warn that delays or cancellations could leave Australia vulnerable in an increasingly tense Indo-Pacific region. "The uncertainty is damaging," said one defence analyst. "If the US pulls back, Australia’s strategic position weakens significantly."
Trump’s Shadow Over AUKUS
With Trump leading in US polls, his past criticisms of multilateral alliances have fuelled anxiety. During his first term, he frequently questioned the value of international partnerships, leaving many to wonder if AUKUS would survive another Trump presidency.
Australian officials remain publicly committed to the deal, but behind the scenes, contingency plans are reportedly being discussed. "We’re preparing for all scenarios," a senior defence source admitted.
Public Sentiment Shifts
The Guardian Essential poll also found that support for AUKUS has dipped since its announcement in 2021. Rising costs and prolonged timelines have eroded initial enthusiasm, with some now questioning whether the investment is justified.
Opposition leaders have seized on the findings, calling for greater transparency. "Australians deserve to know if this deal is at risk," said one MP. "Billions are at stake."
As geopolitical tensions rise, the AUKUS dilemma underscores the challenges of long-term defence planning in an unpredictable world.
