The Middle East has been plunged into a new phase of conflict following coordinated military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran on Saturday, February 28, 2026. President Donald Trump announced the commencement of "major combat operations," stating the actions aimed to eliminate Iranian missile threats and dismantle naval capabilities, while offering Iranians an opportunity to overthrow their leadership.
Escalation in the Region
Trump, in a video statement shared on Truth Social, emphasized that his administration had taken extensive measures to minimize risks to US personnel. However, he warned of potential American casualties, asserting that "the Iranian regime seeks to kill." The strikes represent a significant escalation after repeated warnings from Washington and Jerusalem regarding Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
In response to the attacks, Iran launched missiles toward Israel, as confirmed by Israeli military sources. Smoke was seen rising over Tehran following explosions, with Associated Press imagery capturing the aftermath of the strikes.
Understanding Ballistic Missiles
Ballistic missiles are rocket-propelled weapons guided during ascent but following a free-fall trajectory for most of their flight. They deliver warheads containing conventional explosives or potentially biological, chemical, or nuclear munitions over varying distances. Western powers view Iran's ballistic missile arsenal as both a conventional military threat to Middle Eastern stability and a potential delivery system for nuclear weapons, should Tehran develop them. Iran consistently denies any intention to build atomic bombs.
Iran's Missile Inventory and Capabilities
According to the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Iran possesses the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the Middle East. Iranian officials maintain a self-imposed range limit of 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles), sufficient to reach Israel and protect national interests.
Multiple underground "missile cities" are located across various provinces, including Kermanshah and Semnan, as well as near the Gulf region. The Center for Strategic and International Studies identifies several long-range missiles capable of striking Israel:
- Sejil: 2,000 km range
- Emad: 1,700 km range
- Ghadr: 2,000 km range
- Shahab-3: 1,300 km range
- Khorramshahr: 2,000 km range
- Hoveyzeh: 1,350 km range
The semi-official Iranian news outlet ISNA published a graphic in April 2025 highlighting nine missiles with Israel-reaching capabilities, including the Sejil, reportedly capable of flying over 17,000 km per hour with a 2,500 km range; the Kheibar (2,000 km); and the Haj Qasem (1,400 km).
Washington-based think tank the Arms Control Association provides additional estimates:
- Shahab-1: 300 km range
- Zolfaghar: 700 km range
- Shahab-3: 800-1,000 km range
- Emad-1 (under development): 2,000 km range
- Sejil model (under development): 1,500-2,500 km range
Recent Deployment History
Iran last utilized its ballistic missiles during the 12-day war with Israel in June 2025, firing projectiles that killed dozens and destroyed buildings. According to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project, Israel likely destroyed approximately one-third of Iranian missile launchers during that conflict, though Iranian officials claim recovery from damages.
In response to US participation in Israel's air war, Iran targeted the US Al Udeid air base in Qatar with missiles, providing advance warning that resulted in no casualties. A ceasefire was announced by Washington hours later.
Other notable deployments include January 2024 strikes on Israel's spy headquarters in Iraq's Kurdistan region and Islamic State targets in Syria by Iran's Revolutionary Guards, as well as missile strikes against Baloch militant bases in Pakistan. While Saudi Arabia and the US accused Iran of involvement in the 2019 drone and missile attacks on Saudi oil facilities, Tehran denied responsibility. In 2020, Iran launched missiles at US-led forces in Iraq, retaliating for the drone strike that killed Major General Qassem Soleimani.
Strategic Development and Future Trajectory
Iran asserts that its ballistic missiles serve as a deterrent and retaliatory force against the United States, Israel, and other regional targets. A 2023 report by Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, indicates continued development of underground missile depots with transport and firing systems, alongside production and storage centers. Iran first fired a ballistic missile from underground in 2020.
The report notes that years of reverse-engineering and producing various missile classes have enabled Iran to stretch airframes and utilize lighter composite materials to enhance range. In June 2023, Iran unveiled its first domestically manufactured hypersonic ballistic missile, as reported by the official IRNA news agency. Hypersonic missiles travel at least five times the speed of sound on complex trajectories, presenting significant interception challenges.
The Arms Control Association states that Iran's missile program is largely based on North Korean and Russian designs, with Chinese assistance. Additionally, Iran possesses cruise missiles like the Kh-55, an air-launched nuclear-capable weapon with a range up to 3,000 km.
This detailed examination of Iran's missile capabilities comes amid heightened tensions following the recent US-Israel strikes, underscoring the ongoing strategic calculations in a volatile region.
