Scottish First Minister John Swinney has declared that securing a majority for the Scottish National Party in the upcoming Holyrood elections would constitute a direct mandate to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence.
Majority Victory as a Democratic Mandate
In a significant interview on Sky News's Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, the SNP leader was unequivocal about his party's intentions. He stated that if the SNP wins a majority in the Scottish Parliament in May, it would be interpreted as a green light to demand a fresh vote on leaving the United Kingdom.
Mr Swinney drew a direct parallel with the historic 2011 election result. "I'm being straightforward with people in Scotland," he said. "If people in Scotland want Scotland to become independent, the SNP has got to do really well in this forthcoming election and it's got to achieve a majority... because when that happened before in 2011, it led to a referendum in 2014."
Challenging Westminster and Starmer's Future
The First Minister robustly defended Scotland's right to self-determination, framing the UK as "a partnership of equals." He argued that this principle grants Scotland the democratic authority to choose its own constitutional path.
In a striking political prediction, Mr Swinney also questioned the tenure of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer should the SNP triumph. He asserted, "if I win a majority in the Scottish Parliament elections in May of this year, I don't think Keir Starmer will be the Prime Minister." This comment suggests the SNP leader believes such an outcome would critically undermine the Labour government's authority and legitimacy in Scotland.
The Stakes for Scotland's Political Future
The SNP remains the dominant force at Holyrood, currently holding 60 of the 129 parliamentary seats. The upcoming election on Thursday 7 May 2026 is now set to be a high-stakes battle framed as a de facto vote on the independence question itself.
The shadow of the 2014 referendum, where Scots voted to remain in the UK by 55.3% to 44.7%, looms large over this new political manoeuvring. Mr Swinney's comments set a clear benchmark: an SNP majority equals a renewed push for independence, potentially setting the stage for a major constitutional clash with the UK government in Westminster.
