A leading political academic has issued a stark warning that the continuation of the United Kingdom in its present form cannot be assumed, pointing to historical precedents where multi-national states have collapsed rapidly.
The Fragile State of Plurinational Unions
Ben Wellings, an associate professor of politics and international relations at Monash University, draws a direct line from twentieth-century history to contemporary British politics. He argues that when plurinational polities – states comprising multiple nations – begin to disintegrate, the process often happens with startling speed.
The crucial conditions for such a collapse, he states, are the weakening of political parties that support integration and the shifting attitudes of the political elite within the majority nation. With support for both the Labour and Conservative parties anticipated to decline in the May 2026 elections, there are growing concerns that the political centre may not hold.
The English Question and the Brexit Pivot
Currently, the stance of England's political establishment – including politicians, civil servants, and commentators – remains largely supportive of the British project. However, Professor Wellings highlights the significant role of Reform UK, a party born from what he describes as the "historic ambiguity in the expression of English nationalism".
He further suggests the Conservative Party, which he characterises as more radically right-wing than conservative in the modern era, might also be tempted to shift its focus from a British to a specifically English register.
The 2016 Brexit referendum marked a pivotal moment, according to the analysis. It represented the point where English nationalism switched from its traditional mode of supporting the political entity England was part of – whether the Empire, the UK, or the EU – to a disintegrative mode. That powerful political energy was initially directed outward at the European Union, with profound consequences.
British Nativism and the Search for a Progressive Englishness
With the EU no longer a viable target, nationalism in England has become dominated by a form of British nativism. Yet, Wellings contends that this version of British identity may be insufficient to counteract the longer-term trends pointing towards national fragmentation.
Given this precarious situation, the professor concludes that there is an urgent need to invest the concept of Englishness with a progressive political project. The alternative, he warns, is to leave it defined solely by a xenophobic British nativism, which may accelerate the very forces of disintegration he identifies.
The warning is clear: the profusion of union flags across the country's highways and byways, and the pro-Union rhetoric of the political class, should not breed complacency about the UK's future integrity.
