EU Expresses Relief as Orbán Era Ends, Magyar's Hungary Faces Scrutiny
In Brussels, a palpable sense of relief followed the decisive defeat of Viktor Orbán, Hungary's prime minister for 16 years, who had recently aligned himself with Vladimir Putin. Péter Magyar's victory was celebrated as voters rejected Orbán's fear-mongering campaign, which attempted to link him to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Urgent Questions on Ukraine Support and Sanctions
One of the most pressing issues for the EU is how quickly Magyar will lift Hungary's block on a critical €90 billion loan for Ukraine and the 20th round of sanctions against Russia. Magyar has indicated readiness to support the loan under the same terms as Orbán, provided Hungary does not participate. However, his lukewarm stance on Ukraine's EU accession, suggesting it may not happen within the next decade, and his cautious approach to sanctions have raised concerns among Kyiv's staunchest allies, such as Poland and the Baltic states.
Magyar expressed hope for a swift end to Russia's aggression in Ukraine, after which Europe could "immediately" lift sanctions, citing economic costs. His views echo those of Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, who faced criticism for advocating renewed access to cheap Russian energy. Privately, some Western EU members share anxieties about a rapid timeline for Ukraine's EU membership.
Frozen EU Funds and Energy Policy Tensions
Magyar's top priority is to "bring home" €17 billion in frozen EU funds, withheld due to Hungary's failures in combating corruption, ensuring judicial independence, and disputes over academic freedom and anti-LGBTQ laws. Approximately €2.12 billion has been permanently lost, with a deadline looming at the end of August for agreeing on nearly €10 billion in grants and loans. Any extension requires unanimous approval from all 27 member states.
Energy policy remains a sensitive area. While Magyar's Tisza party aims to phase out Russian energy imports by 2035, the EU targets complete cessation by 2027. Analysts highlight the potential influence of Anita Orbán, a former diplomat and likely foreign minister pick, who has expertise on Kremlin energy strategies.
Migration and Domestic Policy Challenges
Hungary faces daily fines of €1 million for flouting EU asylum rules, posing an early financial headache for the new government. Magyar criticized Europe's "mismanagement" of migration, referencing the 2015 refugee crisis, but acknowledged a shift in EU policies toward harder lines, including offshore centres and tougher deportations. It remains unclear how he will handle Orbán's anti-LGBTQ law.
Daniel Hegedüs, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, described Magyar as a "national conservative EPP guy," noting his political future is tied to Hungary's redemocratisation. He emphasized the need for "constructive diplomacy" to unlock frozen funds, stating, "The main output legitimacy for the new Hungarian government will be how fast and what amount of the frozen EU funding they can bring back home."
A New Chapter for Hungary in Europe
EU leaders will soon gauge Magyar's approach as he plans initial visits to Warsaw and Vienna, notably omitting Berlin, Hungary's key economic partner. László Andor, a former EU commissioner, highlighted the role of Generation Z in Magyar's landslide victory, driven by economic stagnation and exclusion from programs like Erasmus. He stated, "I think it's just inevitable that Hungary starts this new chapter of reintegrating in European policies and values, which is demanded especially by the young generation."
Despite tensions, Hungary under Magyar is expected to act as a "normal" EU member, advocating for its interests rather than weaponizing vetoes for Russia's benefit. The EU remains cautiously optimistic, adopting a "trust but verify" stance as this new era unfolds.
