The remarkable success of mRNA vaccines against Covid-19, a triumph that earned its pioneers a Nobel Prize, now faces an uncertain future. A dramatic shift in US policy under the second Trump administration is threatening to derail the next generation of this transformative medical technology, potentially ceding American leadership to Europe and the UK.
The American U-Turn on a Scientific Triumph
The development of mRNA vaccines was a 21st-century scientific marvel, born from a unique convergence of emergency funding, relaxed regulations, and unprecedented global collaboration. The work of Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman proved that synthetic genetic code could be used to train the human immune system, leading to highly effective Covid-19 jabs. The US invested over $10 billion into building the infrastructure for this breakthrough, positioning itself to reap vast scientific and commercial rewards.
However, that position has been abruptly abandoned. Guided by the radical anti-vaccine agenda of Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr, the Trump administration has executed a stunning reversal. The US Department of Health and Human Services has initiated a "coordinated wind-down" of federal mRNA funding, cancelling an additional $500 million for 22 research projects. This move signals that Washington has become an unreliable partner, willing to walk away after others have invested heavily based on previous commitments.
A Hostile Environment Stifles Progress
The consequences of this policy shift are twofold and deeply damaging. Firstly, it devastates the long-term, steady funding required to develop safe novel therapies. Secondly, when trusted federal agencies stop recommending mRNA vaccines or deliberately slow approvals—as may happen with upcoming flu vaccines—public confidence is eroded and the regulatory safety net is crippled. This is already visible in falling US vaccination rates.
The pharmaceutical industry, while profit-driven, is eager to deliver on mRNA's promise. An unstable US market makes this profoundly difficult. A critical test looms in early 2026, when decisions on approving next-generation mRNA flu vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer will rest with the FDA's Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, run by Kennedy ally Vinay Prasad. A negative ruling would confirm the administration's full commitment to an anti-mRNA crusade.
The Global Response: An Opening for the UK and EU
Ironically, the most ambitious mRNA work—personalised cancer vaccines—has so far escaped the administration's notice, as these treatments are not viewed as traditional "vaccines." Yet, the core business of turning lab findings into therapies is now jeopardised by US policy.
This creates a pivotal opportunity for other nations. The EU has made initial overtures, with the European Commission proposing €500 million and France pledging another €100 million to recruit disaffected US scientists. While this is a fraction of the cuts, the forthcoming EU Biotech Act could prioritise making Europe the world's pre-eminent mRNA centre.
The UK also has a significant role to play. As a major vaccine research power with existing facilities and expertise in mRNA cancer therapies, it has the foundational knowhow to build upon. Its ambitions for vaccine self-sufficiency could expand to fill the vacuum left by US instability.
The early success of mRNA was a global project underwritten by American investment. With that support now withdrawn, the rest of the world—particularly the UK and EU—must see this critical technology through its next chapter. The future of vaccinations for flu, HIV, and cancer may well depend on it.
