Almost half of the 6.23 million people awaiting NHS treatment in England have had no further care since being referred by a GP, new data reveals. The figures, analysed by health data specialist MBI Health, show that 2.99 million patients (48%) have not yet had a first specialist appointment or diagnostic test.
The Patients Association described the situation as an 'invisible waiting list crisis', with millions living in limbo while their health deteriorates. Chief executive Rachel Power said: 'If accurate, 3 million people are trapped in an invisible waiting list crisis, stuck without basic diagnostic tests or first appointments while their conditions worsen.'
The data casts doubt on Labour leader Keir Starmer's pledge that 92% of patients will be treated within 18 weeks of referral by 2029. The target has not been met since 2015, and in May only 61% were treated on time. A third of the 3 million unseen patients have already waited more than 18 weeks without receiving any care.
Barry Mulholland, founder of MBI Health and a former NHS manager, said the waiting list should be seen as a 'frontlog' because so many people have not had their first clinical contact. He warned that without addressing this group, the 18-week target would be 'really hard to accomplish'.
NHS England acknowledged that of the 7.3 million treatments patients are waiting for, 4.7 million (64%) are for people who have not had a first consultation or diagnostic test. Of these, 1.6 million have already exceeded the 18-week limit. The medical specialities with the highest proportion of unseen patients include ear, nose and throat care, orthopaedics, eye care, gastroenterology and gynaecology.
