Homes submerged in Kherson, Ukraine, following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in 2023, serve as a stark visual reminder of the devastating impact of water-related conflicts. This incident is part of a broader, alarming trend documented by experts worldwide.
Sharp Increase in Water-Related Violence
According to the Pacific Institute, a US-based thinktank, water-related violence has surged dramatically in recent years. In 2024, there were 419 recorded incidents, a significant rise from 235 in 2022, marking an almost doubling of such conflicts globally. The institute has compiled evidence spanning centuries, highlighting how water can act as a trigger for violence, a weapon in conflicts, or a casualty of warfare.
Multifaceted Causes Behind the Surge
Dr Peter Gleick, a co-founder and senior fellow at the Pacific Institute, explains that the increase in conflicts is multicausal. "The climate crisis and extreme weather play a part, but there are lots of other factors such as state failure and incompetent or corrupt governments, and lack of or misuse of infrastructure," he said. This complexity underscores the need for comprehensive solutions.
Joanna Trevor, Oxfam’s water security lead, corroborates this view, noting an increase in localised conflicts over water due to climate change and water insecurity. Recent examples include tensions over the Indus River water-sharing treaty between India and Pakistan, Russia targeting hydropower dams in Ukraine, Israel destroying Gaza’s water systems, and protests over water supplies in South Africa.
Specific Cases Highlighting the Crisis
In Gaza, Trevor detailed how water has been systematically weaponised, with deliberate targeting of water systems and desalination plants, leading to contaminated drinking water and attacks on those queueing for water. In east Africa and the Sahel, water insecurity is forcing populations to move, triggering competition and conflict with host communities.
Political dynamics have exacerbated fragile situations. Gleick pointed to the Colorado River and Rio Grande in the US, where border politics under the Trump administration intensified disputes, resulting in violence, including fatalities during protests in Mexico. He also warned of lesser-known disputes in central Asia, such as tensions in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, and Afghanistan's construction of the Qosh Tepa canal, which could reduce water flows to neighbouring republics.
Global Warnings and Calls for Action
The United Nations has sounded the alarm, predicting that global freshwater demand will exceed supply by 40% by 2030. Recently, the UN University Institute for Water, Environment and Health declared the world has entered an era of "water bankruptcy". Unesco reports that while 40% of the world’s population lives in transboundary river and lake basins, only a fifth of countries have cross-border agreements to share resources equitably.
Urgent Need for Transboundary Cooperation
Trevor emphasised the necessity for more accountable transboundary treaties that secure the human right to water for all people. "There needs to be a greater recognition of the need to better share water beyond current water-sharing agreements that are often voluntary and thereby totally reliant upon good will," she said.
Despite the grim outlook, Gleick remains cautiously optimistic. "We can solve our water problems – I don’t argue that we will or that we will do it soon, but we can. That includes the impacts of climate change on water, meeting basic human needs and rights for water, addressing ecosystem problems, and reducing the risks of conflicts over water resources," he concluded.
