Forecasting models indicate that global temperatures could exceed a 2°C increase above preindustrial levels for the first time in recorded history, driven by a potential super El Niño event. Scientists and officials are closely monitoring conditions in the Pacific Ocean that could spike temperatures and smash global heat records in the coming year.
While it is still too early for a definitive picture, signs suggest a so-called super El Niño could develop this year, supercharging extreme weather events worldwide. Some forecasts predict it could become one of the strongest ever recorded. Combined with human-caused climate change, this could temporarily push the world past the critical 1.5°C threshold, with some models even showing a breach of 2°C next year.
What Is a Super El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon marked by warming of ocean surfaces in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, typically occurring every two to seven years and lasting nine to 12 months. During El Niño, trade winds that push warm waters westward weaken or reverse, allowing surface waters to warm. A super El Niño refers to an exceptionally strong event where sea surface temperatures rise more than 2°C above normal, a scenario that has occurred only a few times since 1950.
Current Conditions and Forecasts
Conditions are shifting from La Niña to neutral, but models show rapid transition toward El Niño. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society gives a 70% chance of El Niño developing by June and up to 94% probability of persisting through year-end. The UK Met Office notes growing confidence that this event could be the strongest this century. The US Climate Prediction Center estimates a 50% chance of a strong or very strong El Niño between November and January.
Potential Impacts
El Niño typically triggers drought and heat across Australia, southern and central Africa, India, and parts of South America, including the Amazon. Heavy precipitation may hit the southern US, Middle East, and south-central Asia. It suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity but increases Pacific tropical storms. A super El Niño in 2015 brought severe drought to Ethiopia, water shortages in Puerto Rico, and record-breaking hurricanes in the central-north Pacific.
Marc Alessi of the Union of Concerned Scientists warned that even a nonzero chance of +2°C is shocking, pushing the world closer to dangerous tipping points. While spring forecasts carry uncertainty, climate scientist Tom Di Liberto stated, "The risk is high enough to be worried."
