The price of flour and bread is set to rise following what could be the worst UK wheat harvest in 40 years, industry experts warn. Farmers report that extreme weather over the past year has reduced wheat yields by up to 40%, prompting some millers to increase flour prices by 10% already.
The National Farmers' Union (NFU) describes a triple-whammy of severe weather: heavy autumn rain prevented planting, storms Ciara, Dennis, and Jorge caused flooding, a hot dry spring led to droughts, and heavy rain in August delayed harvesting. Matt Culley, NFU crop board chair and a Hampshire arable farmer, says some fields show a 30% reduction in yield, with poor fields faring even worse. He calls it the worst harvest in his 37 years of farming.
Alex Waugh of the National Association of British and Irish Millers notes that wheat prices have risen by £40 per tonne—a 20% increase—since summer. With tight margins, millers must pass on costs. Paul Munsey of Wessex Mill in Oxfordshire has already raised flour prices by 12% and warns of further increases. A no-deal Brexit could add a £79 per tonne tariff on wheat imports, potentially driving prices up another 40%.
The UK Met Office warns that such extreme weather patterns are likely to become more common due to climate change, with hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters projected. As 85% of flour wheat is grown domestically, shortages will be met by imports, further pressuring prices. Consumers can expect not only higher bread prices but also increases for biscuits, pastries, and cakes.
Agata Towpik, co-owner of Marcopolo Bakery in Wantage, says she is reluctantly considering raising prices for only the second time in a decade. “Flour is our main ingredient and all the prices are increasing,” she explains, citing the need to cover costs while keeping her business viable.
