Universities are warning that Thursday's A-level results in England and Wales could mirror the 2020 marking fiasco, with a 'dramatic swing' back to less generous grades. Disadvantaged pupils, whose learning was disproportionately damaged by the pandemic, are most likely to be 'elbowed out' as thousands fall short of predicted grades and miss university places.
After two years of record results, the government instructed exam boards to grade at a 'midpoint' between pandemic rises and normal 2019 levels. However, unexpectedly low results in Scottish Highers—where the pass rate fell from 89.3% to 78.9%—have sparked fears of a repeat in England. Andrew Hargreaves, former director at admissions service Ucas, said: 'It is a much more dramatic swing than expected and it is certainly not a midpoint.'
Competition for places at selective universities has been exceptionally fierce, with institutions cutting offers after being forced to take more students during the pandemic. Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at Exeter University, warned: 'The real fear is that many disadvantaged students will be elbowed out. This year will be the hardest admissions round in living memory for many applicants.'
Victoria Panni from Hampshire, whose son Taylor hopes to study sociology at Bournemouth University, said: 'I saw that Scottish students weren't getting their predicted grades and I've been talking to my son about backup plans. It is a very worrying time.' She added that the government and exam boards 'totally ignored' the impact of two lockdowns on students' learning.
Mark Garratt, director of marketing at Anglia Ruskin University, advised students that clearing is already open and they can contact universities now to check availability. 'There are still going to be plenty of places at universities across the country,' he said. 'Preparing in advance can mitigate the stress when students receive their results.'
A Department for Education spokesperson said it would be 'incorrect to use Scottish results as a basis for speculation', noting that England's grading policy differs from Scotland's. Ucas expects the majority of applicants to secure places, but experts urge students to research backup plans.
