Four years into Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine remains resilient despite ongoing challenges. Russian territorial gains have been minimal, with advances of only 70 metres per day in Pokrovsk and 23 metres in Kupiansk, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. The total area captured in 2025 amounts to 1,865 square miles, roughly 0.8% of Ukraine's territory, contradicting narratives of a slow-motion defeat.
Ukraine has launched successful counterattacks, including a recent operation north of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia province, gaining an estimated 40 square miles. This follows the recapture of Kupiansk in December. The improved performance is partly attributed to Starlink's decision to block Russian military use of its satellite communications within Ukraine. Christina Harward of the Institute for the Study of War dismisses Kremlin claims of Ukraine's imminent collapse as “completely false,” noting small-scale liberations by Ukrainian forces.
Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and the rest of Donetsk, proposing a demilitarised zone patrolled by Russian forces. However, a NATO intelligence official estimates Russia cannot capture the region within the next 18 months, given the urbanised terrain and over 600,000 Russian casualties. Diplomatic efforts, including references to alleged agreements at the Anchorage summit, have not yielded results.
Ukraine faces severe humanitarian challenges, with over a million people lacking electricity, heating, and water amid winter temperatures dropping to -20°C. In Kyiv, 2,600 buildings are without power or heating. The failure of Western allies to produce sufficient air defence missiles has led to increased reliance on interceptors like the Sting missile, but the proportion of armed Shahed drones hitting targets rose from 6% in January to 29% in December.
Despite these difficulties, Ukraine has not been forced into major concessions. Orysia Lutsevych of Chatham House notes that the worst-case scenario of complete US support withdrawal did not materialise, with arms sales and intelligence sharing continuing. The relentless attacks on civilians have yielded minimal strategic gains for Russia, underscoring Ukraine's enduring resilience.
