A former intelligence official has issued a stark warning that North Korea could descend into a brutal power struggle following the death of Kim Jong-un, with his daughter and sister likely to clash for control of the communist state. The leader, who represents the third generation of Kim family rule after his father and grandfather, appears increasingly intent on passing power to his daughter, Kim Ju-ae, believed to be 13 years old.
Succession Plans and Family Rivalry
South Korea's spy agency informed the country's parliament on Thursday that it believes the teenager is approaching designation as North Korea's future leader, as Kim Jong-un moves to extend the family dynasty to a fourth generation. However, these plans could be disrupted by his ambitious sister, Kim Yo-jong, aged 38, who is reportedly planning to seize control for herself should the dictator die or become incapacitated.
Kim Yo-jong is well-respected within political and military ranks and is widely viewed as the most powerful person in North Korea after Kim Jong-un. Rah Jong-yil, former South Korean ambassador to the UK and deputy director of Seoul's intelligence service, told The Telegraph that a struggle for power after Kim Jong-un's death "is probable."
"It depends on the timing, but I believe if Kim Yo-jong believed that she had a chance of becoming the top leader then she would take it," he said. "For her, there are no reasons to refrain from putting into effect her own political project."
Historical Precedents of Brutality
Little mercy would likely be shown if aunt and niece clash over who should rule the nation next, given previous events within the Kim family. Just two years after Kim Jong-un took power in 2011, he had his uncle and mentor, Jang Song-thaek, arrested over allegations of committing "anti-party, counter-revolutionary factional acts." The charges included illicit affairs with women, harboring "politically-motivated ambition," and obstructing "the nation's economic affairs." He was executed by firing squad in 2013.
Meanwhile, Kim Jong-un's older half-brother, Kim Jong-nam, fell out of favor with the dictator and was assassinated by having VX nerve agent smeared onto his face at Kuala Lumpur airport in 2017. It is widely believed he died on the orders of the North Korean government.
Kim Ju-ae's Rising Profile
The National Intelligence Service (NIS) in South Korea said during a closed-door briefing that they are closely monitoring whether Kim Jong-un's daughter appears with him before thousands of delegates at the upcoming Workers' Party Congress. First appearing in public at a long-range missile test in November 2022, Kim Ju-ae has since accompanied her father to an increasing number of events, including weapons tests, military parades, and factory openings.
She traveled with him to Beijing last September for Kim Jong-un's first summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in six years on the sidelines of a Second World War event. Speculation about her political future intensified last month when she joined her parents on a New Year's Day visit to Pyongyang's Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, a sacred family mausoleum displaying the embalmed bodies of her late grandfather and great-grandfather, the country's first- and second-generation leaders.
Shifting Assessments
Some experts saw the visit as the clearest sign yet that she's positioned to be the heir to her 42-year-old father. South Korean officials initially expressed doubt that she could be chosen as a North Korean leader, citing the country's deeply conservative culture and tradition of male-dominated leadership. But her increasingly prominent appearances in state media have prompted a reassessment.
In its previous assessment of Kim Ju-ae's status in September, the NIS told lawmakers that Kim Jong-un's decision to bring her along on his trip to China was likely part of an effort to build a "narrative" to pave the way for her succession.
"In the past, (NIS) described Kim Ju Ae as being in the midst of 'successor training.' What was notable today is that they used the term 'successor-designate stage,' a shift that's quite significant," said lawmaker Lee Seong Kweun, who attended the briefing.
According to Lee, the agency cited her growing presence at high-profile military events, her inclusion in the family visit to Kumsusan, and signs that Kim Jong-un was beginning to seek her input on certain policy matters.
Family Dynamics and Historical Context
In 2023, South Korea's spy agency told lawmakers that Kim Jong-un and his wife also likely have an older son and a younger third child whose gender is unknown. Since its foundation in 1948, North Korea has been ruled by male members of the Kim family, beginning with the country's founder Kim Il Sung and followed by his son, Kim Jong Il.
Kim Jong-un was just 26 when he was officially named heir during a 2010 party conference, two years after Kim Jong Il suffered a debilitating stroke. Following his father's death in December 2011, he was abruptly thrust into power with relatively little preparation. Some analysts suggest that Kim Jong-un's decision to debut his daughter early possibly reflects his own experience of being rushed into power.
Symbolic Gestures and Future Scenarios
Kim Ju-ae's first known visit to Kumsusan last month was also her father's first visit to the site in three years. Given the palace's status as a key symbol of the Kim family rule, the trip should be seen as a symbolic gesture by Kim Jong-un to present his daughter as his heir before his grandfather and father as he prepares for the major ruling party congress, said Cheong Seong-Chang, a senior analyst at South Korea's Sejong Institute.
The Workers' Party congress in late February, last held in 2016 and 2021, could provide a stage for Kim Jong-un to formalize his succession plans, possibly by giving his daughter the party's first secretary post, its number two job, although such a decision might not be immediately disclosed to the outside world, Cheong said.
Other analysts question whether she would receive such a high-profile post or any formal party role, given that party rules require members to be at least 18 - and argue that Kim Yo-jong would be more likely to succeed in the immediate term. A report from analysis publication 38 North explained that Kim Ju-ae or her siblings "are still too young and unestablished to realistically be considered for succession in the coming five to 15 years."
