The United Nations has issued a stark warning that the world must prepare for the imminent return of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is known to supercharge extreme weather events. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates an 80% chance of El Niño forming before September and a 90% chance before November.
The WMO projects that the event will be at least moderate in strength, with some models suggesting it could be strong. However, the organisation cautioned that there is still significant uncertainty, with some models not indicating a strong El Niño. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the situation as an urgent climate warning, stating that El Niño will 'pour fuel on the fire of a warming world'.
The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to record-breaking global temperatures in 2024. The WMO forecasts unusually high temperatures across nearly all parts of the globe over the next three months, along with an increased risk of extreme rainfall and drought.
El Niño typically brings heavier rain to parts of South America, the southern US, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, while causing drier conditions in Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of south Asia. It can also fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific but hinder their formation in the Atlantic.
The warning comes as western Europe experiences an unusually hot May, with temperature records broken in the UK and Ireland. The WMO and the UK Met Office have previously warned that a record-breaking hot year is almost certain before the end of the decade, with El Niño potentially accelerating this to as soon as 2027. Gareth Redmond-King of the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit highlighted the threat to food supplies, noting that farmers face devastating impacts from another hottest year.
Despite the need for early-warning systems, some major donors, including the UK and US, have cut aid budgets. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stressed the importance of climate finance and implementation support for vulnerable countries. Guterres called for urgent climate action, including ending fossil fuel addiction and accelerating the shift to renewables.
