New aviation data has revealed a significant shift in winter travel patterns, as Canadian tourists turn their backs on traditional American sun destinations in favour of Latin American hotspots.
A Dramatic Shift in Winter Travel
Analysis from the firm OAG shows that in the first quarter of 2026, seat capacity on flights from Canada to the United States has fallen by 10 per cent. This decline represents the equivalent of 5,000 aircraft seats a day being redirected away from US cities. The trend marks a stark change for the millions of Canadian 'snowbirds' who typically flee the harsh winter for warmer climates.
Winners and Losers in the Tourism Market
The data pinpoints which destinations are losing out and which are gaining. American cities have borne the brunt of the change, with Las Vegas seeing 82,000 fewer seats and Orlando a decrease of 79,000 seats over the three-month period. Other major gateways like Fort Lauderdale, Los Angeles, and New York Newark have also recorded declines.
Conversely, airlines are rapidly expanding services to alternative destinations. Capacity to Mexico has risen by 5.1 per cent, with Air Canada increasing flights to Cancun by 20% and adding new services to San Juan del Cabo. Travel to Costa Rica is up by a substantial 14.5 per cent, and Cuba has also seen a 1.2 per cent increase. WestJet has launched new routes to Samana and La Romana in the Dominican Republic.
Political Climate and Lasting Consequences
The shift coincides with renewed political tensions between the US and its northern neighbour. Since beginning his second term, President Donald Trump has been highly critical of Canada, recently dismissing the trilateral trade pact as "irrelevant".
OAG analyst John Grant suggested the change could be lasting. "Should this year’s ‘snowbirds’ find their new experiences positive," he said, "the travel trends observed in the first quarter of 2026 may signal a lasting shift in travel patterns." He noted the competitive pricing and improving quality of Caribbean accommodation, contrasting it with the perception of expensive US hotel rates.
Official statistics underscore the broader downturn in US tourism. Visitor numbers from Western Europe, including the UK, fell by 3.7 per cent in 2025. While full-year Canadian figures for 2025 are not available, the first nine months showed a dramatic 22 per cent year-on-year decline in Canadian travellers to the US.
