The Hidden Crisis Behind London's Seemingly Thriving Pubs
On the surface, the Spread Eagle in Wandsworth presents as a quintessential British pub success story. The bar staff radiate cheerfulness, the Guinness pours perfectly, and the establishment maintains a spick-and-span appearance. On a chilly Thursday evening in January, a respectable crowd of patrons fills the space, from a solitary reader enjoying a 'traditional pub classic' to groups of marketers strategising over pints. A sandwich board outside promises the imminent arrival of Six Nations rugby fixtures to lift the winter spirits.
A Deceptive Facade of Prosperity
This Young's-operated pub, which also features 21 eclectically decorated guest rooms upstairs, offers three regular cask-conditioned beers and boasts an historic interior deemed of national importance by CAMRA. It embodies the classic local, catering to diverse clientele including families and weekend rugby enthusiasts. Yet, despite this vibrant facade, the Spread Eagle has been branded the most financially imperilled pub in London according to a startling new analysis.
Digital communications expert Ben Guerin, creator of ismypubf***ed.com, awarded the establishment this unfortunate distinction after analysing business rates data. "My friends and I were discussing where to visit pubs affected by economic changes," Guerin explained. "Having both experienced business challenges ourselves, I developed the website concept on a Thursday morning and had it operational by that evening."
The Staggering Financial Reality
Guerin's platform cross-references 2023 and 2026 business data, revealing that from over 42,000 pubs analysed, approximately 78-80% face increased costs. Alarmingly, 12% fall into the 'f***ed' or 'absolutely f***ed' categories, indicating their expenses have doubled or more between those years.
The Spread Eagle's situation exemplifies this crisis. Its rateable value is set to skyrocket by 622%, from £16,750 in 2023 to £121,000 this year. Consequently, its annual tax bill will surge by 833% to £46,452. While percentage-wise it represents London's worst case, it is merely one of 5,000 UK pubs confronting a doubling of property tax.
A National Emergency for Hospitality
Last week, the Valuation Office Agency informed MPs that 13% of pubs—totalling 5,100 establishments—face a 100% rise in their rateable value, the metric determining business rates. The average pub will pay £1,400 more annually, accumulating to £12,900 over three years. Some face even steeper climbs, like the Bertie Arms in Stamford, Lincolnshire, confronting a near 2,000% increase.
Katie and James Genever, landlords of the grade II-listed thatched Bertie Arms, revealed the hike would virtually eliminate their profits. "It feels like we're being targeted from every angle," Ms. Genever stated. "Hospitality is being whacked from all sides and used as a cash cow."
The Impending Wave of Closures
The financial outlook for pubs grows increasingly dire. A UK Hospitality report warns that without intervention, six venues will close daily this year—exceeding 2,000 total closures. This dwarfs the 378 closures recorded in 2025 by the Institute for Licensing. The British Beer and Pub Association estimates pubs must sell an additional 1.3 billion pints annually to counteract soaring taxes.
Ben Guerin, who moved from New Zealand to the UK a decade ago, expressed profound concern: "Pubs are the heart of local communities, something I've always cherished about the UK. Each possesses unique charm and heritage, whether hosting patrons on a cold, wet January evening or in a sunny beer garden during summer. It's profoundly saddening witnessing their accelerated decline in recent years."
Political Response and Industry Relief
Following vigorous campaigning, the Labour government appears poised to mitigate rates increases and extend support to pubs grappling with a toxic cocktail of rising costs. These include heightened employers' national insurance, minimum wage increases, energy costs, business rates, inflation, new workers' rights legislation, and elevated alcohol duty.
The government is expected to announce within days an overhaul of business rates calculations for pubs, aiming to soften the sharp hikes that plagued the sector post-Budget. Treasury officials have acknowledged that their business rates revision—the commercial counterpart to council tax—left numerous local pubs facing substantial bill increases, despite a technical 5p cut for the hospitality industry.
At November's Budget, the Chancellor reduced pandemic-era business rate discounts and confirmed the results of a long-awaited re-evaluation of rateable values. This reassessment, representing the government's estimate of annual site rental value, left pubs nationwide confronting significantly larger bills.
Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer and Pub Association, welcomed the government's decision to revisit business rates increases, calling it a "huge win for pubs across the country." She added: "This could save locals, jobs, and allows publicans to breathe a huge sigh of relief. The BBPA has collaborated closely with ministers on a pub-specific solution ensuring bills align with the government's previous commitments to pubs."
Young's, the operator of the Spread Eagle, declined to comment on the situation.
