Greggs, the UK's largest bakery chain, is pressing ahead with ambitious expansion plans despite a decline in like-for-like sales in 2025. The company aims to open 800 new stores, reaching a total of 3,500 outlets, and is building two new automated factories in Derby and Kettering. However, analysts and investors have raised concerns about whether the chain has reached saturation point.
Chief executive Roisin Currie remains confident, stating in July: 'I absolutely don’t believe we have reached peak Greggs.' She noted that the company has previously recovered from downturns. But analysts at Panmure Liberum argue that Greggs 'sits at a crossroads,' as its share price has fallen over the past year.
Greggs' expansion includes a new production line at its Newcastle factory, which already produces the equivalent of one million sausage rolls daily. The company's estimated capital expenditure for 2025 was £300 million, funding the new sites intended to support its growth target.
The chain, founded in 1939 by John Gregg in Newcastle, has grown from a single shop to 2,675 UK outlets employing 33,000 people. Its transformation in the 2010s under former CEO Roger Whiteside focused on food-to-go, leading to annual sales of £1 billion by 2018 and £2 billion by 2024.
Despite the sales dip, Greggs retains strong local loyalty, particularly in its home city. Customers in Newcastle praised the quality and value of its products. However, the broader question remains whether the UK's appetite for Greggs can sustain such rapid expansion.
