Initial data from the Black Friday sales event indicates a decline in the number of bargain hunters visiting physical stores, painting a mixed picture for the crucial festive trading period.
Footfall Falls as Budget Worries Linger
According to analysis by MRI Software, footfall across various UK shopping destinations was down by 3.3% compared to the same period last year. The data, measured up to 5pm on Friday, points to the ongoing impact of the cost-of-living squeeze on consumer behaviour.
High streets and shopping centres felt the brunt of this decline, with numbers down by 4.3% year-on-year. In a slight positive note, out-of-town retail parks bucked the trend and recorded a small increase in visitor numbers.
However, MRI Software was quick to add context, noting that shopper numbers were still 11% higher than the previous Friday. The firm described Black Friday as the "catalyst for the festive shopping period," suggesting the weekend could still deliver a strong performance for retailers.
Cyber Monday Set for Billion-Pound Boost
While high streets saw fewer visitors, the outlook for online retail is significantly brighter. Experts are forecasting a massive surge for Cyber Monday, with some retailers holding back deals until after the weekend.
Discount website VoucherCodes.co.uk predicts that shoppers will spend a staggering £3.38 billion online during the event. This figure would just top Black Friday's online takings and represent a 1.7% increase on last year's Cyber Monday.
Adding to this optimistic forecast, accountants PwC UK estimate that total spending over the entire Black Friday period will rise by 1.5% this year to £6.4 billion.
Consumer Confidence and the Road to Christmas
Store bosses are watching the figures closely, as the Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend is a vital part of the 'golden quarter' leading up to Christmas. This period accounts for a large portion of annual profits for many retailers.
Retail analyst Richard Hyman pointed to specific pressures affecting spending. "People's household budgets are under pressure and discretionary spending is an area that is bound to be hit," he said. He also highlighted the potential impact of the recent Budget, suggesting that the pre-Budget speculation may have made consumers cautious about their finances.
Research from Barclays revealed a nuanced consumer mindset. While one in four people have been saving specifically for Black Friday and Christmas, a significant 44% say they do not look forward to the seasonal sales as much as they used to. Furthermore, 70% of those polled are sceptical about the real value of Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals.
As the weekend progresses, all eyes will be on Cyber Monday to see if it can provide the bumper boost retailers are hoping for, setting the tone for the rest of the Christmas shopping season.
