The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has cancelled the release of October's consumer price index (CPI), citing the longest government shutdown in history which ended earlier this month. The agency stated it could not 'retroactively collect' the data required for the inflation report.
The decision, announced on Friday, has heightened uncertainty surrounding the strength of the US economy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had previously described the task of guiding monetary policy without standard economic data as 'driving in the fog'. Price growth remains above typical levels, and President Donald Trump has recently taken steps to address affordability concerns.
Fed officials are weighing whether to cut interest rates, under persistent pressure from Trump. The central bank raised rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to combat inflation and began cautiously cutting them late last year. Powell has indicated a cautious approach, stating last month: 'We're going to collect every scrap of data we can find, evaluate it and think carefully about it. What do you do if you're driving in the fog? You slow down.'
However, a speech by New York Fed President John Williams on Friday lifted expectations of another rate cut in December. Williams said he still sees 'room for a further adjustment in the near term' to rates. The latest jobs report for September was mixed, with 119,000 jobs added but the unemployment rate rising to its highest level since 2021. Growth estimates for preceding months were also revised lower.
The September jobs report was itself disrupted by the shutdown and released over a month late. The complete October jobs report will not be published at all, although data on October job creation will be included in the November report, due a week after the next Fed meeting.
