The cost of food and non-alcoholic drinks in the UK has risen by 3.7% in the 12 months to March 2026, up from 3.3% in February, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This increase has sparked concerns that prices will continue to climb as the war in the Middle East persists, prompting the government and supermarkets to prepare for a worst-case scenario involving potential shortages.
Rising Costs and Global Pressures
UK businesses have warned the Bank of England that food inflation could surge to as high as 7% this year if the Iran war continues. However, the conflict in the Middle East is not the sole driver of rising costs. The Ukraine war, which began in 2022, has already strained supply chains, particularly increasing the price of fertilisers. According to the latest Food Foundation tracker, the cost of a basic weekly shop has risen by 29.2% for women and 36.4% for men since April 2022.
Government and Supermarket Preparations
Supermarkets are collaborating with the government to plan for a worst-case scenario where the conflict leads to shortages of carbon dioxide (CO2), a critical component used by food producers and to carbonate drinks. In response to the outbreak of war, the government provided funding to reactivate the Ensus bioethanol plant, which produces CO2 as a by-product.
Practical Tips to Save Money on Your Food Shop
Despite the challenging economic climate, there are several strategies you can employ to reduce your grocery bills. Here are some effective methods:
Yellow Sticker Shopping
The best time to find yellow sticker discounts is typically towards the end of the day, though this varies by store. Ask staff when they usually mark down items to plan your visit accordingly.
The Downshift Challenge
Swap branded goods for supermarket-own brands to potentially save around 30% on your food bill. For a weekly shop that normally costs £100, this could mean saving over £1,500 annually.
Price Comparison Tools
Use websites like Trolley.co.uk to compare live prices across major supermarkets and other retailers. Set up discount alerts for price changes, and use the price history tool to check if an item was cheaper previously.
Explore Different Aisles
Cheaper versions of the same products can often be found in the world food and baby aisles. For example, 100g of ground cumin in Tesco costs £1.90 for the supermarket version, but only £1.50 for a different brand in the world food aisle.
Make a List and Stick to It
Writing a shopping list helps reduce impulse buys. Avoid shopping when hungry to stay focused on your list. Also, check your fridge and cupboards to use what you already have and prevent double-buying.
Utilise Your Freezer
Freeze food that can be eaten later to reduce waste. Check product packaging for freezing instructions. The UK wastes approximately 9.52 million tonnes of food every year.
Discount Groups and Magazines
Websites like LatestDeals and HotUKDeals list the newest supermarket offers. Join Facebook groups where members share deals. Don't forget to pick up free supermarket magazines, which often contain vouchers, recipes, and competitions.
