The escalating conflict with Iran is sending shockwaves through African economies, as surging oil prices threaten higher fuel costs, rising inflation, and renewed pressure on currencies across the continent. Africa imports most of its petroleum products, leaving it highly vulnerable to supply disruptions from the Middle East.
“Africa is a net importer of oil products, meaning it is heavily exposed to shocks like these,” said Nick Hedley, an energy transition research analyst at Zero Carbon Analytics. He noted that when global oil supplies tighten, prices rise while African currencies often weaken as investors move funds into safe-haven assets such as the US dollar. This combination amplifies the impact in import-dependent markets like Kenya and Ghana.
The impact is uneven across the continent. Countries like Nigeria and Ghana produce crude oil but import most refined products, limiting benefits from higher global prices. “It’s difficult to say at this point whether they will see net gains,” Hedley said. “Oil producers could benefit from higher crude prices, but ordinary citizens will likely face higher transport and fuel costs, and potentially higher interest rates.”
Sustained high prices could bring a windfall for major oil exporters such as Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, and Libya. The war pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel on Monday, a level that if sustained would significantly boost revenues for these nations. However, for most African households, the immediate effect is higher living costs. “This is a serious concern,” Hedley said, noting that most food and goods are transported by road, so rising fuel costs feed quickly into broader inflation.
Countries already under International Monetary Fund programmes could face additional strain as energy import bills drain foreign exchange reserves. Analysts warn that Sudan, The Gambia, Central African Republic, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe are among the most vulnerable. Over the longer term, the crisis may reinforce calls for African nations to diversify energy systems and reduce dependence on imported fuels.
