The Ghost Towns of West Virginia: A Demographic Crisis Unfolds
Regions of West Virginia that once provided employment for tens of thousands in the coal industry are confronting catastrophic population declines over the coming fifteen years. Projections from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia paint a bleak picture for areas that powered America's industrial revolution.
McDowell County, formerly the globe's largest coal producer, is anticipated to shed 32 percent of its inhabitants by 2040. The most recent United States Census recorded 19,111 residents in 2020, but figures have already dwindled to approximately 17,000 in 2024. Demographer Hamilton Lombard forecasts this will plummet to just 13,037 people within sixteen years.
A Shadow of Former Glory
The current situation stands in stark contrast to the county's mid-twentieth century heyday, when nearly 100,000 people called McDowell County home during the coal boom's peak. The decline isn't isolated to this single area either, with ten neighbouring counties expected to collectively lose tens of thousands of residents.
This exodus will inevitably result in devastating reductions in economic output and tax income for the state. Lombard explained to the Daily Mail that while outward migration plays a role, particularly among university graduates seeking opportunities elsewhere, it isn't the primary driver of this demographic collapse.
The crucial factor lies in the alarming disparity between deaths and births. Data from the West Virginia Department of Health reveals that during 2019 and 2020, McDowell County witnessed 638 deaths compared to just 339 births - nearly double the mortality rate.
An Ageing Population with Few Prospects
Lombard noted the severity of this imbalance, stating: "There are really only a few other places in the country that are higher than that. Most of them are retirement communities, and McDowell County is not anything like a retirement community in Florida."
By examining current age distributions that skew heavily toward people in their sixties and seventies, Lombard could confidently project future population trends. He combined this with historical demographic patterns to build his forecasts.
"If you get past a certain age, you're more likely to die than have a child, would be the crude way of putting it," Lombard said. "That'll make it very hard to grow, because even if you're attracting people, which McDowell County isn't, you've got to attract enough people every single year to make up for that deficit, and that's just very hard to do."
The visual landscape of McDowell County and rural West Virginia tells its own story of decline. Abandoned coal mines, quiet town streets, and closure notices on once-thriving businesses have become commonplace sights.
The opioid crisis has compounded these troubles, with overdoses becoming the leading cause of death for West Virginians under 45 since 2013. Meanwhile, the coal industry has been systematically phased out since the 1980s in favour of cleaner energy sources, steadily eliminating local employment opportunities.
From Youthful Hub to Ageing Backwater
The transformation from vibrant community to declining region has been dramatic. Lombard highlighted that "If you look at McDowell County back in 1980, it had a younger population than Washington, DC. It was one of the younger counties in the country. Today, the median age there is 44, and in Washington, DC it is 34. It's growing far older than DC just by losing so many young adults."
The 1980s signalled the beginning of coal's demise in West Virginia and other producing states. Employment in the sector continued to diminish during both the Clinton and Obama administrations. Between 2008 and 2016 alone, coal production in West Virginia was halved, largely because natural gas became significantly cheaper.
Another alarming indicator of McDowell County's deterioration is life expectancy, which stood at just 66.3 years in 2021 - a full twelve years shorter than the national average of 78.4 years. Lombard observed that this places the county on par with several Sub-Saharan African nations, including Rwanda, Eritrea and Ethiopia.
Glimmers of Hope Amidst the Gloom
Despite the overwhelmingly negative trends, some West Virginia areas are experiencing modest revivals thanks to economic and workforce changes accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Five years ago, all seven coalfield counties, including McDowell, recorded more people moving out than arriving. Today, this pattern only persists in two of them.
Lombard identified remote workers seeking affordable housing as driving this minor resurgence. "People have looked at some of these rural areas a lot more closely and realized, if you want to live in McDowell County, you can buy a house for $50,000...and these are not homes that need to be gutted. They're very, very livable," he explained.
However, McDowell County and similar locations still struggle to attract significant numbers of hybrid or remote workers despite their bargain property prices. The areas benefiting most from white-collar transplants are Tucker County, situated south of Pittsburgh, and eastern West Virginia, which benefits from proximity to Washington, DC.
Lombard concluded with cautious optimism: "It's been so different since 2020, and continues to be so different. I think there's a lot more hope for at least some of these communities. I wouldn't say all of them. On one hand, the prognosis is fairly grim. But if you look at the last couple years, it seems like some solutions have come up that just weren't obvious before 2020 on how they can turn themselves around."
