After a significant delay, the United States has finally released its official jobs report for September, sending financial markets on a turbulent journey. The data provides the first clear snapshot of the American labour market since the recent government shutdown.
A Long-Awaited Economic Snapshot
The Bureau of Labor Statistics was forced to postpone the September payroll numbers, which were originally scheduled for early October. This blackout period left Wall Street and the Federal Reserve relying on incomplete private data for nearly two months. The report confirmed that the US economy added 119,000 jobs in September, a figure that significantly outpaced economist predictions of a modest 50,000-job rebound.
This latest data continues to indicate a cooling labour market following years of blockbuster growth. For context, the economy added 143,000 positions back in January 2025. However, hiring has slowed markedly throughout the year, with August seeing a tiny gain of just 22,000 jobs. July added 79,000, while June experienced a loss of 13,000 positions – the first drop since the early pandemic period, serving as a warning sign that the jobs market was beginning to show strain.
Broader Economic Implications
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent, matching expectations. Wages increased by 0.3 percent month-on-month and 3.7 percent year-on-year. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, commented before the release that the numbers were likely to show "a little bit brighter outlook than is commonly assumed, but not much to brag about." He added that "the labour market is holding in there, just like the economy."
However, this release fails to provide a complete picture. Due to the government shutdown, there will be no separate October jobs report published. Instead, October's figures will be incorporated into November's data, scheduled for release on December 16th. This means there will be no official unemployment rate for October.
Navigating Continued Uncertainty
Brusuelas warned that the US is "muddling through a period of pervasive uncertainty" and suggested that markets might not get a clean reading on the labour market until February 2025. The monthly jobs report represents one of America's most crucial economic indicators, revealing whether companies are hiring or firing, how much workers are earning, and how many people are struggling to find employment.
A strong report typically signals a healthy economy where Americans have money to spend, while a weak report suggests the US economy is losing steam and could be heading toward recession. The data also plays a vital role in shaping interest rate decisions. The Federal Reserve monitors the jobs report almost as closely as inflation figures.
If job growth slows or turns negative, it signals a faltering economy, making the Fed more likely to cut rates to stimulate spending. Conversely, if hiring and wages rise too quickly, officials worry about reigniting inflation, making rate cuts less probable. Goldman Sachs had previously indicated that October would likely have shown job losses, partly driven by furloughs related to shutdown disruptions.
Leading economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics warned back in September that the US was already in a "jobs recession" that risked pushing the rest of the economy into a full-blown downturn, highlighting that a "labour recession" was already underway.
