Ten months into Donald Trump's dramatic second-term victory, built upon his pledge to restore affordability and revive prosperity for everyday Americans, voters are examining their kitchen tables, grocery receipts and bank statements to determine whether that promise has been fulfilled.
While official economic indicators appear robust - with GDP expanding and stock markets repeatedly hitting record highs - the daily reality for millions of Americans presents a far less optimistic picture, according to economists speaking to the Daily Mail.
The K-Shaped Economic Divide
Sarah Foster, an economist at Bankrate, explained that beneath the encouraging headline figures lies what economists term a 'K-shaped economy' - where one segment of the population thrives while another struggles financially.
'Fewer people are receiving pay increases. The employment market has slowed considerably. Individuals are finding it challenging to secure new positions,' Foster told the Daily Mail.
This situation creates what Foster describes as a 'jobless boom', characterised by 'spending and investing on intellectual property and AI tools that might keep us out of a recession, but it remains uncertain whether ordinary people actually experience any wealth benefits from that growth.'
Thanksgiving Reality Check
As American families prepare for Thanksgiving celebrations next week, many will confront the ongoing impact of inflation on their holiday budgets.
Government data reveals that grocery store prices have increased by 3.1 percent, though some traditional Thanksgiving items have actually become more affordable. The price of a 16-pound turkey has decreased from $25 last year to $21.50, while stuffing mixes have dropped from $4.04 to $3.71, and cranberries have declined from $2.34 to $2.28.
Nevertheless, shoppers nationwide continue to face elevated costs for numerous essential items. A pound of coffee beans now costs $9.14, representing a substantial $2.67 increase over the past year - nearly a 41 percent rise. Meanwhile, ground beef per pound has climbed from $5.67 in September last year to $6.32 currently, an increase of approximately 11.5 percent.
According to Talker Research, the average American family is budgeting $952 for their Thanksgiving celebrations, with median expenditures of $175 on food, $110 on beverages, $83 on decorations, and $293 on travel.
Employment and Wage Pressures
The employment landscape reveals concerning trends. Despite economic growth of 3.8 percent in the second quarter, job creation has significantly lagged behind expectations.
Peter Morici, an economics professor at the University of Maryland, explained to the Daily Mail that despite extremely modest job growth, the economy expanded because 'businesses are conserving labour through artificial intelligence implementation.'
Bankrate analysis indicates that given the GDP surge, employers should have been generating approximately 264,000 positions monthly, yet only 119,000 were added in September. Meanwhile, unemployment has increased to 4.4 percent, up from 4.2 percent in November 2024.
'Hiring activity is currently so subdued that it historically correlates with an unemployment rate nearer seven percent,' Foster noted. 'Essentially, finding new employment is presently as difficult as during periods when the economy experiences seven percent unemployment.'
A separate Bankrate survey discovered that 62 percent of workers report their salaries have not kept pace with rising living costs, while 43 percent indicate they haven't received any pay increase whatsoever - the highest proportion since the company began polling in 2022.
Housing Market Challenges
The American housing market continues to present significant challenges for many citizens. The median US home sales price stands at $410,800, representing only a seven percent decrease from the record $442,600 observed in late 2022.
Since last year, the median price has declined by less than one percent, indicating that housing costs have essentially stabilised rather than meaningfully decreased since President Trump assumed office.
Foreclosure activity is increasing, with October alone witnessing 36,766 foreclosure filings - a three percent rise from September and a 19 percent increase compared to the previous year.
While homeowners maintaining mortgage payments benefit from strong equity gains, first-time buyers confront daunting prices and potential financial catastrophe should debt spiral into foreclosure.
As Americans gather for Thanksgiving, the question remains whether the economic prosperity promised during the campaign trail has materialised in their household budgets, or whether the recovery has bypassed many ordinary families still grappling with the cumulative effects of years of inflation.
