Andy Burnham’s aides are urging him to scrap the triple lock on state pensions, but the expected future prime minister is resisting the move for now, according to reports. The policy, which guarantees annual pension rises in line with the highest of inflation, wage growth, or 2.5%, has come under fire for its escalating cost, now projected at £15.5bn a year by 2030.
Economist Lord Jim O’Neill has been among those lobbying Burnham to axe the policy, arguing it could boost bond markets and national finances. However, Burnham has reiterated his commitment to Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledge to maintain the triple lock during this Parliament, effectively until 2029. He warned that breaking that promise would be “very damaging,” defying growing calls for reform.
The triple lock was introduced in 2010 to reduce pensioner poverty, but high inflation and wage growth have made it three times costlier than initially expected, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility. Pensions already account for nearly half of the £333bn welfare bill, raising questions about long-term affordability.
Despite the fiscal pressure, scrapping the triple lock is seen as politically toxic among older voters, a key demographic. Former pensions minister Steve Webb noted that while ministers might want to free up funds for younger people, it would be electorally risky. YouGov polling shows almost half of voters believe a new prime minister should call a general election, adding to Burnham’s political calculations.
Burnham has not outlined his plans for the triple lock beyond 2029, leaving the door open for future changes. He has hinted at addressing the growing number of pensioners drawn into income tax due to frozen thresholds. For now, he is determined to honour the manifesto that secured Labour’s landslide victory.
