Former Prime Minister Tony Blair's institute has reignited the debate over the pensions triple lock, arguing that the policy is financially unsustainable as the UK faces an economic shock from the Iran war. The triple lock guarantees that the state pension rises annually by the highest of inflation, earnings, or 2.5 per cent. With the number of pensioners projected to rise from 12.6 million to almost 19 million by 2070, the cost of the state pension could increase from 5 per cent of GDP to 7.8 per cent, an extra £85 billion a year. The Tony Blair Institute (TBI) has proposed savings of £66 billion, suggesting that the triple lock cannot last.
Politicians have long avoided discussing reform of the triple lock, fearing backlash from the pensioner voting bloc, which turns out in higher numbers than any other age group. Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch have both tentatively raised the issue but quickly retreated. Rachel Reeves, scarred by her failed attempt to scrap the winter fuel allowance for pensioners, has not dared to go further. However, former senior figures like Harriet Harman, Jeremy Hunt, and Michael Gove have publicly acknowledged the triple lock's unsustainability.
Now, Alan Milburn, the former health secretary, is expected to recommend ending the triple lock in his upcoming government report on rising youth unemployment. He will argue that the UK has misallocated resources and that savings from pension reform should be redirected to create better opportunities for young adults. One proposal is to increase pensions by the average of inflation, earnings, or 2.5 per cent, rather than the highest figure. Another idea, supported by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), is to peg the state pension at 30 per cent of median full-time earnings.
At the 2024 general election, the Greens broke ranks by proposing a double lock, where pensions rise by the higher of inflation or earnings. The IFS has suggested that all parties agree not to promise the triple lock in their next manifestos, breaking the current deadlock. However, Labour is wary of breaking its 2024 manifesto pledge to maintain the triple lock. Reeves recently reiterated this commitment in Washington.
Yet circumstances have changed since 2024. The Iran conflict and Trump-era economic policies have created new pressures on public spending, with financial markets likely to welcome a long-term fiscal reform like ending the triple lock. Keir Starmer has described the Iran war as a defining generational challenge, and advocates argue he should match this rhetoric with a fairer intergenerational settlement. The scales are currently tipped against young adults, who face worse prospects than their parents.
While scrapping the triple lock would provoke protests from pensioner groups and hostile headlines in anti-Labour newspapers, Labour's more urgent priority may be appealing to under-40s, who feel neglected and are increasingly supporting the Greens. Ending the triple lock and boosting youth opportunities could be a bold move that resonates with younger voters. Moreover, many older people privately support reform, concerned about their children's and grandchildren's futures.
As Starmer plans a major offer to his party following expected losses in upcoming Scottish, Welsh, and English local elections, a new deal for young people funded by ending the triple lock could be the bold initiative needed.
