A bombshell poll has revealed that Nigel Farage is inching closer to leading the UK as Reform UK surges ahead of rival parties. Average vote shares from 11 polling companies that published a general election poll in May place Mr Farage's party at 27.8% of the vote, a rise of 1.4 percentage points from April.
Reform UK's commanding lead
Reform UK is nearly eight percentage points ahead of Labour's 19.9%, with the Conservative Party trailing at 18.3%, the Green Party at 13.6%, and the Liberal Democrats at 12.1%, according to analysis from the Electoral Reform Society (ERS). The ERS's polling breakdown follows Reform UK's sweeping gains in local elections on May 7.
Expert analysis on vote share
Despite Reform UK's apparent popularity, senior ERS researcher Ian Simpson noted that the party is backed by fewer than three in 10 voters. He stated: "Historically, such a vote share would have been regarded as a poor result for a party hoping to form a government. In Britain's traditional two-party era, winning power usually required support from well over a third of voters. This is no longer necessarily the case."
Simpson explained that under the UK's First Past the Post electoral system, a party's overall popularity does not shape outcomes. Instead, how a party performs relative to others matters more. Finishing a few points ahead of a main rival in a crowded field means there is "a good chance" that party can win a majority of seats.
Call for electoral reform
The ERS is urging urgent reform of the UK's electoral system to prevent parties supported by a minority of voters from securing overall majorities on local councils and in the Commons. It recommends adopting Proportional Representation using the Single Transferrable Vote for all local elections.
Polling data and favourability
The ERS's May polling average was compiled using data from BMG, Deltapoll, Find Out Now, Freshwater Strategy, Ipsos, J.L. Partners, More In Common, Opinium, Techne, Trajectory Partnership, and YouGov. While the analysis suggests Mr Farage could sweep to victory at the next general election, YouGov polling from April shows he is not universally favoured. Mr Farage has a net favourability rating of -38, compared to Sir Keir Starmer's -45 and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch's -21.
Upcoming electoral tests
Reform UK's next electoral test will be in by-elections in Makerfield, Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, and Aberdeen South. In Makerfield, voters will decide whether candidate Andy Burnham could become the next prime minister. If Mr Burnham wins, he may replace embattled Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader and UK leader. He faces Reform UK, which aims to prove that a long-time Labour stronghold is fertile ground for its anti-immigration message, with potentially seismic consequences for British democracy.
Makerfield has swung Labour for 120 years, but Mr Burnham is not guaranteed victory, as Reform won 24 of the 25 council seats up for grabs in May's local elections. Mr Farage's party also faces competition from former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain party, which is also standing in Makerfield.
