The Met Office has issued an update on the potential for more heatwaves in the UK, warning Brits to prepare for a 'hotter than usual' summer. In its latest three-month outlook, the national weather service has given its verdict on what the season ahead has in store in a 'country that has substantial year-to-year variability' in its climate patterns.
The update comes just over a week after the warmest spring since 1884 and the hottest May day on record were both recorded during a countrywide heatwave. Some areas saw six consecutive days above 30°C last week, with 35.1°C measured in Kew Gardens, west London, and 32.9°C recorded at Cardiff’s Bute Park, on 26 May.
According to the latest data, the trend for the weeks ahead indicates a higher-than-usual probability of hot conditions overall, which brings an elevated risk of heatwaves. In an update on the Met Office website, a spokesperson said: 'We have a more than usual chance of a hot summer. The shift in likelihood towards hot conditions is consistent with the long‑term trend of rising UK temperatures linked to global climate change, meaning what we consider "average" is gradually shifting over time.'
Alongside temperature, the outlook suggests the chances of wet and windy conditions are only 'marginally' higher than normal. This means we could see a mixed bag in June, July and August - ranging from extended settled spells to repeated periods of unsettled, wet weather.
This forecast comes just 24 hours after the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued an urgent global warning, revealing an 80% probability that a warming 'El Niño' climate event will develop this summer. According to the United Nations (UN) agency’s latest forecast models, the phenomenon is expected to emerge between June and August.
Reacting to this announcement, a spokesperson for the Met Office said the impact of El Niño is indirect as it occurs far from the British Isles, although there are 'sometimes links between El Niño and European weather patterns'. They added it is 'too early to draw firm conclusions about what this developing El Niño might mean for future UK seasons'.
