Many parts of the southern and eastern US have seen their weekend plans disrupted this spring by a series of storms, leading to a perception that it rains every weekend. However, meteorologists say this is not actually the case, but rather a combination of seasonal weather patterns and human perception.
The Memorial Day weekend was the wettest Burlington, Vermont, had seen in over a century, according to WCAX, while flooding in Beeville, Texas, required water rescues. Social media users lamented the ruined fun, with one Texas user posting: “Death. Taxes. Austin Memorial Day Rain.”
Experts attribute the rainy weekends to a mix of factors. AccuWeather senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok explained that an upper-level area of high pressure over Memorial Day weekend produced moisture that moved from Texas through the Midwest and into the East. The polar jet stream also pushed storm systems from the northeastern Pacific into the Ohio Valley, creating a “sweet spot” for rain in areas like the Northeast.
While some have suggested air pollution, climate change, or cloud seeding as causes, Pastelok dismissed these for the timing of weekend storms, calling it “luck of the draw.” Steve Decker of Rutgers University agreed, noting that climate change can make rain heavier but does not affect timing. Past studies linking vehicle emissions to weekday-weekend precipitation differences are now less relevant due to cleaner air.
Nevertheless, 44% of Americans live in areas with unhealthy levels of ozone or particle pollution, according to the American Lung Association. Air pollution can influence rainfall, but Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said any “weekend effect” would be minor. There is also no connection to the impending El Niño pattern, said James Booth of The City College of New York.
While pollution and climate change do not dictate the timing of weekend storms, they can intensify them. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall. Matthew Barlow of the University of Massachusetts Lowell noted that climate change increases the upper limit on storm moisture, while Tom Rickenbach of East Carolina University added that changes in the jet stream can slow storms, causing them to dump more rain in one place.
