The Met Office has indicated that while much of the UK will experience drier and more settled weather this Christmas, there is a chance of an ‘odd wintry flurry’ in some areas, particularly along the south coast. High pressure is building, bringing a strong easterly breeze that will make conditions feel colder, though temperatures are expected to reach a daytime high of 7°C and drop to -3°C or -4°C overnight.
Marco Petagna, a Met Office meteorologist, noted that the south coast of England, especially South Devon and Cornwall, has the greatest chance of seeing a wintry flurry. For a white Christmas, technically only a single snowflake needs to fall anywhere in the UK, and such occurrences are not unusual, though lying snow is rarer.
According to the Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS), snow has fallen on Christmas Day at least somewhere in the UK in 54 of the past 66 years. Since 2020, every year except 2024 has been deemed a white Christmas. However, significant snowfall has been limited, with only four years since 1960—1981, 1995, 2009, and 2010—seeing a thick blanket of snow. In 2010, 83% of weather stations recorded snow on the ground, the highest ever.
Despite this, the chance of noteworthy snowfall this year is only around 10%, according to Petagna. Historically, the little ice age between the 16th and 19th centuries made harsh winters more common, which may explain the snowy Christmases depicted by Charles Dickens. The climate crisis has also contributed to warmer Decembers in recent decades, reducing the overall likelihood of snowfall on Christmas Day, though cold spells can still occur.
For those hoping for snow, the Met Office notes that most UK snow days occur between January and March, offering future opportunities for wintry weather.
