The Met Office has expanded its extreme heat warning for parts of the UK, predicting record-breaking highs of 38°C (100.4°F) this week. The forecaster said there was “growing confidence” that this week may break the record for the hottest June temperature of 35.6°C, set in 1976 in Southampton and in June 1957 in Camden Square, London. There is a 25% chance of temperatures exceeding 40°C.
“The forecast heatwave is developing into an impactful severe weather event, with record-breaking June temperatures and very high humidity,” said Tom Crabtree, a Met Office deputy chief forecaster. “The combination of heat and humidity will be oppressive and bring impacts across society from public health and infrastructure, to power and water supplies.” Overnight temperatures will also be very high, with widespread tropical nights, where the temperature does not drop below 20°C, across southern parts of England and especially in urban areas.
“We could also break the June record for overnight minimum temperature, which doesn’t sound as exciting but can be quite impactful,” said Becky Mitchell, a Met Office meteorologist. “We could also see three consecutive days with temperatures of 37°C or above for the first time. That’s extraordinary in June. Climate change is definitely playing a role in these temperatures.”
Monday and Tuesday’s warning covers most of southern England, central and eastern Wales, and much of the Midlands. The peak of the heatwave is forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, when temperatures are expected to climb to 38°C, and when the Met Office alert extends to parts of Greater Manchester, Yorkshire and Cheshire. By Friday, conditions will be less hot, with highs of 33°C forecast across eastern areas.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued yellow and amber heat health alerts, warning that health and social care services must ensure they are prepared. People in the alert area are advised to drink plenty of fluids, keep out of the sun and avoid exercising between 11am and 3pm. The hot, humid and still weather conditions are also expected to bring a surge in mosquito numbers, particularly in the south of England away from coastal areas.
Dr Mehri Khosravi, a senior research fellow at the University of East London’s Sustainability Research Institute, said the increasingly regular occurrence of extreme heat events was most severely affecting elderly people and those on low incomes. Caroline Abrahams, the charity director at Age UK, added: “The heatwave forecast for the coming week in some parts of the country is set to be unprecedented in its intensity, so older people really do need to take care, especially if they have serious health conditions.”
