The draw for the 2026 World Cup takes place on Friday, and the expanded 48-team tournament presents a range of potential group-stage pitfalls for the home nations and other leading sides. England, in Pot 1, could face a daunting group including Croatia, Norway and Jordan, according to rankings-based analysis. Croatia, ranked 10th in the world and finalists in 2018, are the highest-ranked potential Pot 2 opponent, but drawing them would rule out facing Norway (Pot 3) or Italy (Pot 4) due to the limit of two European teams per group.
For Scotland, placed in Pot 3, the worst-case scenario on rankings would be Spain from Pot 1 and Morocco from Pot 2, or Argentina and Croatia. They cannot face Norway, but would likely prefer to draw Canada, Mexico or the USA over other Pot 1 sides. In Pot 4, the picture mirrors England's, with Ghana and DR Congo among the trickiest non-European options.
The United States, as hosts in Pot 1, avoid the world's top nine teams but could still land a tough group with Morocco or Colombia from Pot 2 and Norway from Pot 3. They cannot face Panama, who have won four of their last six meetings, and would probably want to avoid a European playoff winner from Pot 4. Australia, in Pot 3, would hope to avoid Argentina from Pot 1 and a strong non-European side from Pot 2, with Cape Verde, Ghana and DR Congo lurking in Pot 4.
A theoretical group of death could see Argentina, Morocco, Italy and Norway drawn together, combining teams ranked second, 11th, 12th and 29th in the world. However, the expansion to 48 teams means the best eight third-place finishers will advance, reducing some of the jeopardy. The European playoffs in March will determine which Pot 4 teams pose the greatest threat, with Italy a feared prospect despite their recent qualifying struggles.
