Geert Wilders' decision to withdraw his far-right Freedom Party (PVV) from the Dutch ruling coalition may prove a miscalculation, according to political analysts. The move, which brought down the government and forced snap elections this autumn, was intended to make the vote a referendum on immigration and asylum, potentially propelling Wilders to the premiership. However, several factors suggest the plan could backfire.
Wilders' frustration stemmed from his coalition partners' reluctance to endorse his proposed 'strictest asylum policy in Europe,' which included using the army to secure borders and turning back all asylum seekers. After months of infighting, the PVV pulled out, with Wilders declaring he intended to become the next prime minister and make his party 'bigger than ever.'
The coalition, formed in July 2024 after the PVV's shock electoral victory, included the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), centrist New Social Contract (NSC), and liberal-conservative VVD. From the outset, it was plagued by disagreements, and Wilders—a volatile firebrand long known for his anti-Islam rhetoric—was barred from becoming premier by his partners. The party's inexperience in government further weakened the cabinet.
Wilders' gamble has serious obstacles. First, his coalition allies expressed shock and indignation, accusing him of betrayal and irresponsibility. Second, the political landscape has shifted: polls show PVV support dropping from 37 to 30 seats, while BBB and NSC have plummeted to 1%, and the VVD and GreenLeft-Labour alliance are close behind. No party can govern alone, and Wilders has made future alliances unlikely.
Furthermore, voter priorities have evolved. The re-election of Donald Trump has pushed European defence, security, and economic turbulence to the forefront, while immigration—once a top concern—has declined from its 2022 peak. The Netherlands received fewer than two first-time asylum applications per 1,000 inhabitants last year, below the EU average.
