Britain's foremost polling expert has delivered a stark warning to the Labour Party, suggesting that only Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham possesses the broad appeal needed to prevent Nigel Farage from reaching 10 Downing Street.
Starmer's Leadership Under Fire
In a candid interview with The Independent, Professor Sir John Curtice issued a scathing assessment of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's tenure. Curtice asserted that Starmer "doesn't have the skill set for Downing Street" and criticised him for lacking a clear vision for the country. He expressed doubt that the Prime Minister could simply "learn to be a politician" in the coming year.
Sir Keir, speaking on Sunday the 4th of January 2026, insisted he would remain in post and cautioned that any internal moves to oust him would be a "gift" to Nigel Farage and Reform UK. Despite this, speculation continues to swirl in Westminster about a potential leadership challenge before the next general election.
Burnham: The Preferred Successor
Sir John Curtice pinpointed Andy Burnham as the standout candidate capable of reuniting the party and appealing to the wider electorate. "Andy Burnham is probably still the best possibility," he stated, highlighting the Mayor's significant popularity both inside and outside Labour ranks.
This analysis is backed by a YouGov poll from December 2025, which showed Burnham as the clear frontrunner among potential successors, leading figures like Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting. However, Curtice noted the significant hurdle Burnham faces: the "very difficult" route back into Westminster as he would need to secure a parliamentary seat first.
Other Contenders Face Scrutiny
The pollster was sceptical about the prospects of other rumoured candidates. He suggested Health Secretary Wes Streeting, while a good communicator, was "not that popular in the party" and was burdened by the challenges of overseeing the NHS during a crisis.
Regarding former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, Curtice questioned whether she could craft a compelling national vision and if she possessed the necessary skills for the top job, noting she "tends to be divisive within the electorate."
He also downplayed the leadership chances of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, despite praise from Sir Tony Blair, citing her "social conservatism" and poor performance in internal party surveys.
A Year of Political Upheaval Predicted
Looking ahead to a turbulent 2026, Sir John Curtice predicted significant political changes. "I would not be surprised if there had not been at least one significant change of leadership by this time next year," he warned.
He explained that Labour's electoral challenge is compounded by losing votes to the Greens and seeing Reform UK squeeze the Conservative vote while also taking some support from Labour. This dynamic, he argued, ultimately benefits Reform in terms of parliamentary seats.
With the popularity of both Sir Keir Starmer and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch plummeting, the upcoming May local elections could be a final catalyst for disgruntled MPs fearing for their seats at the next general election.
