Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon traded blows on the last day of election campaigning as they targeted key Scottish marginal seats. Corbyn launched Labour’s final push near the Clyde, on the border of Sturgeon’s Glasgow Southside constituency, declaring that the only way to remove the Tories was to vote Labour across the UK, including Scotland.
Sturgeon responded on Twitter, insisting there was “not a single Tory/Labour marginal” in Scotland and that only the SNP could beat the Conservatives. She later repeated the message in Edinburgh South, Labour’s safest Scottish seat, warning that voting for other parties risked helping the Tories.
The exchange highlighted the complex electoral landscape north of the border. Several of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats are highly marginal, with four among the top ten most marginal in the UK. In Lanark and Hamilton East, less than a percentage point separates the SNP, Conservatives, and Labour, with all three parties claiming they could win.
A YouGov poll suggested the SNP could regain six of the 21 seats it lost in 2017, taking seats from both the Conservatives and Labour. It predicted the Tories would hold nine of their 13 Scottish seats and Labour five of its seven, though other strategists doubt Labour will retain more than three. The Liberal Democrats are expected to win four seats.
Conservative strategists anticipate shocks, particularly in Fife North East, where the SNP’s Stephen Gethins won by just two votes in 2017. They believe tactical voting by Conservative supporters could oust him, though YouGov predicts he will hold the seat. The Tories are also braced for losses in Aberdeen South and Ochil and South Perthshire, and concede defeat in Stirling, where the SNP’s Alyn Smith has built a strong pro-Remain coalition in a constituency that voted 67% to stay in the EU.
Campaign issues in Scotland have centred on independence, Nicola Sturgeon, Brexit, and Boris Johnson, with Johnson’s reputation proving toxic in some seats. A YouGov poll for the Times indicated support for independence had fallen five points to 44% since September. Labour insists that national polls underplay its local campaigns, and chose to launch Corbyn’s final day in Glasgow South West, where it believes candidate Matt Kerr could win.
