Keir Starmer's closest aides are 'war-gaming' how to win a leadership contest ahead of Andy Burnham's anticipated return to Westminster, the Guardian understands. Downing Street sources said the prime minister had taken the last fortnight to think seriously about his future but was now 'hellbent' on fighting any contest, with his team working through scenarios including sacking ministers who publicly support Burnham.
However, several close allies acknowledged that Starmer's future may be out of his hands. 'Keir may be determined to fight any challenge. But when it comes to it, he might not have a choice. As one former prime minister put it, when the herd moves, it moves,' a loyalist minister said. They added that Starmer was self-aware enough to stand aside should he feel Labour could not win with him at the helm, but said: 'He's not there yet.'
Burnham said last week he would seek to join any potential Labour leadership contest should he beat Reform in the Makerfield byelection, but has not ruled out challenging Starmer himself. The prime minister's team is preparing, with one senior aide saying: 'Maybe it is over. But if so, Keir's not going without a fight. Our plan is to be more Harry Truman and less Joe Biden.'
Cabinet minister Steve Reed said he was convinced Starmer would fight any contest and should even offer Burnham a job if he wins in Makerfield. Allies argue Burnham is unprepared for a challenge, as his time would be split between campaigning for the new mayor of Greater Manchester and the summer recess. 'By the time you get there, Burnham's momentum has started to ebb,' said one.
Polling of party members gives Starmer's supporters some hope: a YouGov poll showed 59% backing Burnham against 37% for Starmer, but allies believed the prime minister could secure a 10% swing once Burnham faced scrutiny. 'The more Andy is tested, the more people see he's not up to the job,' one said. However, Starmer presides over a divided party, and No 10 insiders admitted that if more ministers publicly called on him to go, it would be difficult to resist the pressure.
