Senior SNP strategists believe a majority at next year’s Holyrood elections is “within reach”, despite record low public trust in the Scottish government. The party’s annual conference in Aberdeen this weekend will focus on re-engaging independence supporters who have drifted away from the SNP.
A senior source said the path to a majority of 65 seats or more was “more straightforward now” due to the Tory collapse and Labour’s unpopularity. “The focus now is how to re-engage all independence supporters, given that independence is way more popular than the SNP currently,” they said.
Both the SNP and Scottish Labour are targeting “soft yes” voters—those who backed Labour in the 2024 general election to oust the Tories but are no longer SNP loyalists. Another senior source described this as the “battleground cohort”, adding that how it plays out will determine whether the SNP wins 55 seats or around 65.
First Minister John Swinney has differentiated himself as pro-immigration and a progressive tax reformer, warning that Nigel Farage could become prime minister. The party’s conference motion states that winning a Holyrood majority would be the “only uncontested way” to deliver a new independence vote, though a rebel amendment calling for a de facto referendum is expected to be defeated.
Despite the SNP’s confidence, the Scottish Social Attitudes survey shows trust in the Scottish government at its lowest since 1999, and NHS satisfaction at a new low. However, polling expert Sir John Curtice noted that while the SNP has dropped 15 points in five years, it remains the main beneficiary of a fragmented system, with Labour vulnerable to Reform UK north of the border.
Recent polling puts the SNP on 37% of the Holyrood vote, Labour on 17%, and Reform on 16%. Support for independence hovers around 50%. The SNP faces challenges ahead, including a new chief executive, Callum McCaig, the fourth in three years, as the party prepares for a bruising contest.
