The launch of Restore Britain, a new populist party led by former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe, is splitting the right-wing vote and boosting Labour's chances in upcoming elections, according to political analysts. The party, established in February after Lowe left Reform UK in disputed circumstances, threatens to undermine Nigel Farage's Reform UK by appealing to the same base of voters and activists.
Both parties share similar platforms, including pledges to deport migrants, promote Christianity and traditional patriotism, and cut red tape and environmental targets. However, Restore Britain positions itself as more uncompromising than Reform UK, which Lowe has described as "weak sauce" and "managed opposition." Elon Musk has publicly backed Lowe, further straining relations between the two parties.
Nigel Farage has expressed concern over the split, telling the Telegraph that Musk is trying to "split the right of British politics as best he can." At the upcoming Makerfield by-election and the next general election, even a small vote share for Restore Britain could deprive Reform UK of victory, potentially benefiting Labour.
Betting odds have shifted in Labour's favour as the right-wing vote fragments. However, analysts caution that the benefits of a split opposition can be short-lived, as seen when Reform UK's surge under Farage in 2024 ultimately dragged the entire political spectrum to the right, rather than helping Labour consolidate power.
