Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, is taking a high-risk gamble by escalating tensions with Iran, analysts say, as he seeks to hold onto power amid political turmoil and corruption trials. The recent explosion at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, widely attributed to Israeli operatives, marks a significant escalation in the shadow war between the two nations.
Netanyahu, who has failed to secure an electoral mandate in four consecutive elections over the past two years, faces a corruption trial and declining political support. Critics argue that by provoking a national security crisis, he aims to shift the political landscape in his favour and disrupt US-Iran nuclear negotiations.
The prime minister's strategy includes openly acknowledging Israeli involvement in attacks, a departure from past practices of denial. This approach risks drawing Iran into a more direct confrontation, potentially destabilising the region and undermining Israel's security.
Iran has responded to the Natanz attack by announcing plans to install more advanced centrifuges and increase uranium enrichment, while also reportedly firing a missile at an Israeli ship. However, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has instructed negotiators to remain in Vienna talks, avoiding the trap set by Netanyahu.
US President Joe Biden, along with Britain and the EU, supports reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, which Trump abandoned in 2018. Netanyahu's actions threaten to complicate these efforts, potentially pushing Iran closer to nuclear weapons capability and increasing regional instability.
The gamble could have far-reaching consequences, including empowering hardliners in Iran's upcoming presidential election and endangering Israel's recent diplomatic gains in the Gulf. As the situation unfolds, Israel's security increasingly depends on Iran's restraint, a precarious position for any nation.
