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Why Matt Goodwin isn't the Reform winner Farage believes him to be
The academic turned right-wing firebrand has been selected as Reform's candidate for the Gorton and Denton by-election. However, his central argument that 'Broken Britain' stems primarily from immigration and civilisational collapse is unlikely to convince voters in this diverse constituency, writes Alan Rusbridger.
Saturday 31 January 2026 06:00 GMT
Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage recently visited Gorton and Denton alongside candidate Matt Goodwin, presenting a united front ahead of the crucial by-election. Yet beneath this show of political solidarity lies a fundamental question about whether Goodwin's ideological framework can translate into electoral success.
The 'Dinnergate' incident and Goodwin's worldview
The episode that became known as "Dinnergate" offers revealing insight into Goodwin's political perspective. Following a public debate with broadcaster David Aaronovitch at London's Conway Hall, Goodwin took to social media to complain about not being invited to a post-debate dinner, framing this as evidence of a "New Elite" excluding him.
For Goodwin, this minor social snub confirmed his broader theory about Britain's decline. He argues that a once-great nation has fallen under the control of a small, out-of-touch "radicalising minority" who are ruining institutions from universities to media organisations. These "Anywheres," as he terms them, supposedly feel more at home in international hubs like Davos or Brussels than in provincial Britain.
Goodwin's critique extends across multiple British institutions. He targets what he calls "Wokehall" (the civil service), legacy media organisations including the BBC and Financial Times, universities maintaining an "ideological monoculture," and even commercial entities like the John Lewis partnership that have embraced diversity initiatives.
Civilisational concerns and demographic anxieties
Goodwin's platform centres on what he describes as impending "demographic rupture." He echoes Donald Trump's observations about European cities becoming "unrecognisable" and expresses particular concern about Muslim population growth in Britain. Citing research suggesting Muslims could comprise around 17 percent of the UK population by 2050, Goodwin warns of Muslims "outbreeding 'native British people.'"
This leads to his distinction between "thin" and "thick" versions of citizenship. Goodwin advocates for a "thicker" conception based on "ethno-traditional" shared history and ancestry, arguing that "it takes more than a piece of paper to make somebody 'British.'"
These arguments bear resemblance to historical concerns about immigration and identity, notably those expressed by Conservative MP Enoch Powell in his 1968 "Rivers of Blood" speech. The crucial difference lies in their political consequences: while Powell's speech cost him his shadow cabinet position, Goodwin's similar warnings have earned him a Reform Party candidacy.
The Gorton and Denton constituency challenge
Nigel Farage's decision to select Goodwin for this particular constituency raises strategic questions. Gorton and Denton ranks 23rd out of approximately 600 voting areas for Muslim population concentration, with around 30 percent of residents identifying as Muslim according to 2021 census data. This compares to a national average of just 6 percent.
The constituency's demographic profile presents particular challenges for Goodwin's messaging. Approximately one-third of residents were born outside the UK (compared to 17 percent nationally), and 9 percent identify as black. How Goodwin will engage with these communities while maintaining his concerns about immigration and civilisational collapse remains unclear.
Previous media appearances offer some indication. In an Al-Jazeera interview with Mehdi Hasan, Goodwin attributed the 2024 Southport children killings to immigration, despite the perpetrator being UK-born, arguing the killer was "a product of immigration." Under persistent questioning about his statistical claims during the interview, Goodwin struggled to defend his figures as the audience grew increasingly sceptical.
Voter priorities versus ideological fixation
Residents of Gorton and Denton likely share the same practical concerns as voters nationwide. The cost of living crisis, NHS and healthcare provision, economic stability and job security, childcare costs, crime levels, policing, and local infrastructure issues like potholes typically dominate electoral discussions.
Goodwin's singular focus on immigration, civilisational collapse, and elite detachment risks appearing disconnected from these everyday realities. As Mark Twain reportedly observed, "To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail." For Goodwin, every problem in "Broken Britain" seems attributable to the same narrow set of causes.
Whether this ideological framework can resonate on the by-election doorstep remains doubtful. If Goodwin nevertheless secures victory in Gorton and Denton, it would represent a significant political upset and suggest a dramatic shift in British electoral dynamics. In such an unlikely event, as promised, dinner would indeed be on the writer.
