Andy Burnham remains committed to an orderly transition of power in early September, despite growing expectations that Sir Keir Starmer could announce a timetable for his resignation as early as Monday, a senior source has told the Manchester Evening News.
The MEN understands a handover in early September is the preferred option, with Mr Burnham expected to meet Labour MPs over the coming weeks as the party maps out its next steps. It is understood Burnham's team would like time to work with civil servants ahead of a transfer of power. Regardless of their wishes, much will depend on what Sir Keir Starmer decides.
Burnham's Final Mayoral Appearances and Return to Westminster
The hoped-for timetable has emerged as Mr Burnham prepared for his final appearances at the mayoral HQ as the outgoing Mayor of Greater Manchester, before returning to Westminster this week to be sworn in as Makerfield’s new MP. His week will begin with what is expected to be an emotional speech to staff at the Greater Manchester Combined Authority on Monday.
Sources said the speech will focus on thanking staff for their role in delivering Mr Burnham’s manifesto pledges during his nine years in office, with the Bee Network likely to feature prominently as the most visible example of his legacy.
It is understood that trusted advisers from his period as mayor are likely to join him in London should he become PM. But Burnham will give significant focus on making sure Labour hold on to the mayoralty even as he bids for the job as Prime Minister.
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election and Candidate Speculation
The Greater Manchester Mayoral election will take place on Thursday July 30th with the Labour candidate widely expected to be the current council leader Bev Craig, who the MEN understands will be endorsed by Andy Burnham.
The results of last week’s Makerfield by-election have caused a seismic shift in Labour politics, transforming speculation about a Burnham tilt at the leadership into a reality for the sitting Prime Minister. The by-election was triggered after Labour MP Josh Simons stood down to allow Mr Burnham to return to Parliament. The election was widely seen inside the Labour Party as a proof of concept that Mr Burnham could take Labour’s fight to Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, who have remained consistently ahead in national polling.
Party insiders told the MEN that there were three questions that Mr Burnham needed to answer with the by-election: Could he win, how much could he win by, and could Labour retain the Greater Manchester mayoralty?
Mr Burnham answered the first two questions emphatically. He won 54.8 per cent of the vote, securing a majority of more than 9,000 over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon and increasing Labour's vote share by 9.6 percentage points compared with the 2024 general election. The result stunned political opponents and emboldened allies who believe Mr Burnham has set out a blueprint for how Labour can take the fight to Nigel Farage's insurgent party.
Starmer's Future and Party Reactions
Sir Keir Starmer is understood to have spent the weekend at Chequers, where he is said to be contemplating his future. Reports emerged over the weekend that he could lay out a timetable for stepping down after being confronted with the fact that he no longer commands sufficient support among the Parliamentary Labour Party to see off any leadership challenge.
Business Secretary Peter Kyle, who said he spoke to Sir Keir on Friday, told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that the Prime Minister is now "taking the time to think through what the political realities are today compared to last week, the week before".
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is believed to have urged Sir Keir to set a timetable for his departure, although she has not commented publicly on the speculation.
Insiders have told the Manchester Evening News that the Prime Minister is "extremely angry" at how events have unfolded in recent weeks. "Starmer can go out in a bloody mess and get battered, which is embarrassing, or he can take the dignified route through legacy," one person told us previously.
Burnham's Parliamentary Return and Hillsborough Law
Mr Burnham will head to Westminster this week, where he will be sworn in as Makerfield's MP in the House of Commons. The M.E.N. previously revealed that Mr Burnham would not take any role in Sir Keir's Cabinet during any transition period, although it is understood he could work with the Prime Minister to secure the passage of Hillsborough Law before any handover.
Should Sir Keir choose not to resign, any challenger would need the backing of 81 Labour MPs to trigger a leadership contest. Former health secretary Wes Streeting has already suggested he would be willing to fire the starting gun - something the M.E.N. understands Mr Burnham and his team are more hesitant to do.
"We would prefer not to be the first to start a leadership contest," one ally previously said. "We want to continue to be the good guys."
Mr Burnham has not commented publicly on the speculation over the weekend. During his victory speech in Makerfield, he issued a stark warning to his own party.
"When this borough went to the polls in May, it made a loud cry for change," he said. "In this campaign, we have begun to answer that. But I do say to my own party this is a final chance to change. We must hear it, we must act upon it, and we must get it right. There will be no second chance, but it is a chance now, from this result tonight, to build a new politics based on unity and hope."
Race for Greater Manchester Mayor: Candidates Emerge
While attention is focused on Westminster, Mr Burnham's departure has triggered the high-stakes mayoral contest closer to home. The Green Party, seen as potential contenders for the post, have already selected Trafford councillor Geraldine Coggins as their candidate, while Labour insists the contest will be a straight fight with Reform UK.
Dan Barker could be the choice for Reform UK, sources within the party have said. He was the Reform candidate in the 2024 mayoral election so has done the dance before and has the experience of running a mayoral campaign. Dan Barker is a coordinator for Reform UK across Greater Manchester and was once a member of the Conservatives before leaving the party to join Reform.
Nadim Muslim’s name was mentioned by sources within the Conservatives as a potential candidate, but many stressed that there would be a 'thorough' selection process before a name is announced. Rumours within the Lib Dems are that Richard Kilpatrick is set to be the candidate. He’s a councillor in Didsbury and sits on the Greater Manchester Police, Fire and Crime Panel at the GMCA.
And, as first-reported by the MEN, Marlon West is rumoured to be in the running to be the Restore Britain candidate. He’s a child exploitation campaigner and has had a busy few weeks working on the campaign trail for Restore Britain in Makerfield supporting the party's candidate, Rebecca Shepherd.
Applications to become Labour's candidate to replace Mr Burnham closed at 5pm on Sunday, with the party's National Executive Committee and Regional Executive now drawing up long and shortlists ahead of a members' ballot. Bev Craig is widely expected to lead the nominations. The winning candidate will be announced later this week.
