In Northampton, a town an hour north of London, local business owners express strong beliefs that crime is rising. Mark Kypta, owner of The Sofa King, a discount sofa warehouse, says crime is 'up – it's got to be hasn't it?' Johnny Dowling, who runs The Bop Shop, recounts personal experiences including his wife being held at gunpoint and a threat to set him alight. Both believe crime is increasing nationally and locally.
However, official statistics tell a different story. Crime in Britain has been falling steadily for nearly 20 years, with Northampton recording a 19% drop in the past year, the sharpest fall. The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) shows crime at its lowest level in decades, contradicting public perception.
The Office for National Statistics suggests media reporting may explain why most people believe national crime is rising, even though they think local crime is falling. Experts are puzzled by the trend, as crime fell during the recession despite cuts to public spending, rising unemployment, and increased use of food banks.
Criminologists disagree on the causes. Some argue that acquisitive crime must have risen and that surveys miss new forms of crime, particularly online offences. The police-recorded crime data has faced criticism for under-recording, especially sexual offences, to meet targets, leading to the UK Statistics Authority withdrawing its gold-standard status.
The CSEW also has limitations, excluding crimes against businesses like shoplifting and not surveying some vulnerable groups. Despite these issues, the overall trend remains clear: crime in Britain is falling, even if public perception lags behind.
