The Conservative spring conference in Harrogate highlighted two key truths about Kemi Badenoch's leadership. First, she has begun to find her feet, with her personal favourability ratings gradually rising since last September. Second, this has not translated into the boost her party needs, as Tory polling remains about six points down from when she took over and has failed to capitalise on Reform UK's recent decline.
Badenoch's speech was serviceable, targeting the government's handling of defence and proposing to reinstate the two-child welfare limit to fund increased defence spending. However, the cut-through has been minimal, with several national papers not covering the speech online. In a fragmented party system, simply bashing the government yields fewer dividends, as a fall in Labour support does not automatically boost Conservative fortunes.
The Tories have not fully grasped the scale of Britain's problems. Badenoch's welfare-defence proposal is a tidy political package but would barely scratch the surface of the sustained defence spending increase experts say is needed. The party remains averse to confronting fundamental contradictions, such as balancing the books, cutting taxes, or boosting defence spending without cutting pensions or other spending that Tory voters favour.
A more competitive party system makes it harder for any party to alienate parts of its coalition. The Tories cannot remain a sectional interest party for retirees without losing older voters and failing to gain support elsewhere. There is no politically viable route to a serious uplift in defence expenditure, as Cold War-era spending relied on different voter attitudes, and unwinding welfare spending carries a high political price with many rivals ready to tell voters what they want to hear.
The Conservatives face a catch-22: they lack the inclination or political space for a radical break with the status quo, but no longer have the hegemonic position that allowed them to coast as the default right-wing option. With multiple right-wing options, their offer is not refined enough. The question is when this truth will filter through to the party, which has been buoyed by the 'Kemi bounce' despite the government's struggles.
