Vladimir Putin fears a coup or an assassination attempt, with a former defence minister identified as a 'potential destabilising actor', according to a report from a European intelligence agency. The Kremlin has dramatically increased personal security surrounding the president, installing surveillance systems in the homes of close staffers, following a wave of assassinations of top Russian military figures.
High Alert in the Kremlin
The report describes 'high alert' in the government since the beginning of March 2026, regarding 'the risk of a plot or coup attempt against the Russian president'. Putin 'fears the use of drones for a possible assassination attempt by members of the Russian political elite,' it reads.
One of the most striking conclusions concerns erstwhile Putin confidante, Sergei Shoigu, Russia's former defence minister and current secretary of the Security Council. He 'is associated with the risk of a coup, as he retains significant influence within the military high command', the report states.
Stringent Security Measures
According to the dossier, cooks, bodyguards, and photographers who work with Putin are prohibited from traveling on public transport. Visitors to the dictator must be screened twice, and those working close to him can only use phones without internet access. The 'Kremlin and Vladimir Putin himself have been concerned about potential leaks of sensitive information,' the report says.
Some security measures were implemented in recent months following the December killing of Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov, who served as head of the general staff’s army operational training directorate. He died after an explosive device detonated beneath his car, in what Moscow described as a likely assassination carried out by Ukraine.
Aftermath of Sarvarov's Assassination
The alleged assassination of Sarvarov sparked uproar in the top ranks of Russia’s security establishment, the report says, with Putin summoning key personnel three days later for an urgent meeting. During the gathering, chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, attacked Federal Security Service (FSB) head Alexander Bortnikov for failing to protect his officers, who in turn complained of a lack of resources and personnel to carry out his duties.
'Emphasising the fear and demoralisation this has caused among (military) personnel, Valery Gerasimov strongly criticised his counterparts in the special services for their lack of foresight', the report says. 'At the end of this tense meeting, Vladimir Putin called for calm, proposing an alternative working format and instructing participants to present concrete solutions to the issue within one week.'
The Russian leader subsequently extended the reach of his own Federal Protection Service (FSO) – which at that time only shielded Gerasimov in the military top brass – to provide security to ten more senior commanders.
Growing Dissent and Economic Strain
As well as the assassinations, unease is growing in the Kremlin due to increasing signs of public dissent amid the downfall of the economy and the Russian army's faltering military campaign in Ukraine. In response, Russian security officials have dramatically cut the number of locations that Putin regularly visits, and he and his family have stopped attending their usual residences in the Moscow region and at Valdai – the dictator's heavily fortified summer retreat which lies between St. Petersburg and the capital.
The Kremlin leader has not visited a military facility this year so far, according to the dossier, in contrast to regular trips throughout 2025. To get around these new restrictions, the government releases pre-recorded images of him to the public, it adds. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin also spends weeks upon weeks hiding in upgraded bunkers, often in Krasnodar, a coastal region bordering the Black Sea hours away from the capital, the report says.
Shoigu Under Suspicion
Suspicions grew around Shoigu following the arrest of his former deputy and close associate, Ruslan Tsalikov, on March 5, according to the report. Tsalikov's detainment is considered 'a breach of the tacit protection agreements among elites, weakening Shoigu and increasing the likelihood that he himself could become the target of a judicial investigation'. Tsalikov was arrested on charges related to embezzlement, money laundering and bribery. While reports of corruption in the military elite are frequent, they have multiplied since the invasion of Ukraine. The dossier does not provide evidence to support the claims against Shoigu, however, who was formerly seen as very loyal to the Russian president.
Plummeting Approval Ratings
The report comes as Putin's approval ratings have plummeted to 65.6 per cent – the lowest level since the start of the war – a drop of 12.2 percentage points since the beginning of the year. Amid rising taxes, an inflation rate of 5.9 per cent and a central bank interest rate of 14.5 per cent – nearly three times the pre-war level – the cost of living is pinching ordinary Russians, who are increasingly fatigued by the unpopular conflict.
After over four years of fighting, the Russian army has suffered perhaps the worst losses any major power has seen in a conflict since World War II. Up to one in 25 Russian men between the ages of 18 and 49 have been killed or seriously wounded since the war began, with total fatalities potentially exceeding 430,000.
Restrictions and Public Dissatisfaction
To make matters worse, the Kremlin has imposed heavy-handed restrictions on the internet, including its attempt to block Telegram, the country’s most popular messaging app used by more than 100 million Russians a month. Now, Russian influencers such as Victoria Bonya and television presenters such as Ekaterina Gordon are speaking publicly against Putin's policies – indicating the growth of public dissatisfaction.
Because of the increased threat of Ukrainian attacks, Moscow will host a slimmed-down version of its annual parade to celebrate victory in World War II, without the usual display of weaponry. The May 9 parade on Moscow's Red Square is usually the highlight of the Russian calendar, commemorating victory over Nazi Germany in a conflict in which the Soviet Union – of which both Russia and Ukraine were part – lost 27 million people. On recent anniversaries, Russia has shown off weapons including intercontinental ballistic missiles, and Putin has used the occasion to rally the nation behind the war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year. This year, however, the defence ministry said there would be no military equipment on display because of what it called 'the current operational situation'.
Wave of Assassinations
It's not just Sarvarov who has been targeted in recent months. February saw the shooting of Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev, deputy head of the GRU, the Russian military intelligence agency. He was hospitalised after an attacker shot him in the back inside a building in the north of Moscow. Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, one of the most prominent Russian generals to have been attacked, was killed in December 2024 after an explosive hidden in a scooter detonated as he left his home in the capital. And in spring last year, Lt. Gen. Yaroslav Moskalik of the Russian army’s general staff was killed in a car explosion outside his residence.
