Andy Burnham, now effectively Britain's prime minister-in-waiting, faces the daunting task of managing relations with US President Donald Trump, whom he once dismissed as 'the mayor of a town.' The new PM will need a superb foreign secretary and the ability to rally like-minded countries, and early signs suggest he may possess the necessary skills.
Burnham's First Break with Starmer
On Friday, Burnham made his first decisive break with predecessor Keir Starmer by apologising for Labour's handling of the Gaza war. He stated the government should have called for a ceasefire earlier and should now increase pressure on Israel. While the Foreign Office is already considering further sanctions, this shift is more about domestic tone than dramatic policy change. Burnham signals he will listen more closely to grassroots concerns, though some demand he call the war a genocide and ban arms sales.
The Trump Challenge
Burnham enters office at a tipping point for US relations with the West. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, well-connected to Burnham's camp via adviser Andy Haldane, warns that the old America isn't coming back. Even Italy's Giorgia Meloni, once Trump's favourite, appears to have lost patience. At this week's Nato summit in Ankara, Trump threatened to ban trade with Spain, confirmed his desire to own Greenland, and resumed bombing Iran, tearing up a fragile Gulf ceasefire. The resulting rise in oil prices and the prospect of rolling conflict in the Gulf pose severe challenges.
Ellwood's Warning
Former Foreign Office minister Tobias Ellwood, in his book Ten Steps to Prevent World War Three, depicts a 2040 scenario where Trump's bulldozing of the rules-based order allows China to fill the vacuum. Ellwood's third world war involves localised and proxy conflicts, routine violations of battlefield taboos, and a collapsed Nato. He prescribes defining what to defend, circling wagons of like-minded countries, rejoining the single market, sharing renewable energy tech, and forging a 'stability alliance' of middle-ranking powers.
Burnham's Skills and Challenges
Burnham's skill as a mayor in convening alliances aligns with Ellwood's agenda. He already preaches early intervention in domestic policy. However, the question remains how far to confront Trump. The case for appeasing Trump has always rested on Ukraine's need for US help, Europe's need to re-arm, and Britain's reliance on Washington for nuclear deterrence and intelligence. But Trump's threat to Greenland convinced many European leaders that change is needed. Ukraine now needs less US assistance, having built up its own defence capabilities, and the EU funds weapons Washington supplies.
The Need for a Superb Foreign Secretary
Starmer wasn't wrong to make grovelling trips to Washington, buying time for Ukraine. But Britain wasted that grace period, failing to make the public case for more defence spending. Burnham inherits this mess and will need an extraordinary foreign secretary. David Miliband, who held the job under Gordon Brown, is now visibly auditioning. Burnham must master the 'art of titration'—measuring each policy shift to cause just the desired reaction. Assertive enough on Gaza not to seem complicit, yet without denying Israel's right to self-defence. Not too close to Trump, but just close enough. The stakes are high: failure could lead to a future our children may bitterly regret by 2040.
