Sir John Curtice has predicted that the SNP could win the “vast bulk” of Scotland’s constituencies if current polling trends hold. The polling expert noted that the SNP holds a roughly 17-point lead over its rivals, which would likely translate into a large number of seats at Holyrood.
Out of the 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament, 73 are constituency seats decided by first-past-the-post. Curtice highlighted that many polls have not accounted for the fact that the Scottish Greens are only contesting six of these constituencies, which could affect the distribution of votes.
Speaking to BBC Radio Scotland, Curtice observed that the SNP, Conservatives, and Labour have all seen declines in their vote share compared to the last election. Despite this, the SNP’s lead remains substantial, potentially securing around 60 seats for John Swinney’s party.
Curtice emphasised that the constitutional question remains “very important” to voters, and that the overall polling picture has “not moved much” during the campaign. He added that there is still “plenty to fight over in the last week” as parties intensify their efforts.
With all six main parties having released their manifestos and leaders clashing in TV debates, the final week of campaigning is set to be crucial in determining the outcome.
