Political Earthquake in the Capital as Reform Overtakes Conservatives
A dramatic shift is underway in London's political landscape, according to a new Savanta survey that reveals Nigel Farage's Reform UK has surged to 23% support among London voters. This represents a significant increase from the 15% recorded in June, positioning the party ahead of the Conservatives for the first time in the capital.
The poll, conducted for the Centre for London think tank between 30 October and 7 November, interviewed 1,242 adults and found the Conservative Party trailing at 20%, down one percentage point. The Liberal Democrats registered 11% support, while the Greens stood at 10%.
Labour's Troubling Decline in Traditional Stronghold
Most alarming for the governing party is the finding that Labour's support has collapsed to just 32% in London. This matches the joint lowest figure recorded by Savanta since they began polling London voters in 2020. The party's backing has plummeted from 43% since the general election in July 2024, indicating a rapid erosion of support in what has traditionally been a Labour stronghold.
The survey results arrive just before Chancellor Rachel Reeves's first Budget, where she is expected to announce a new 'mansion tax' targeting more expensive properties. This policy is anticipated to disproportionately affect homeowners in London. Furthermore, if income tax thresholds are frozen, more workers in the capital could find themselves paying higher tax rates.
Age Divide and Electoral Consequences
The generational split revealed by the poll is particularly striking. Among Londoners aged 65 and over, Reform UK commands a commanding 35% support, significantly ahead of the Conservatives on 32% and leaving Labour trailing at just 14%.
Antonia Jennings, chief executive of Centre for London, commented: 'The political make-up of London has shifted. This comes after decades of political parties ignoring Londoners struggles and underappreciating the capital's role in the UK economy.'
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta, offered a stark warning for Labour: 'They keep their noses in front, but would be well on course to lose a lot of seats if these figures were replicated at a general election. This will of course spell danger ahead of next year's local elections in London.'
He noted that Labour's current standing makes it 'incredibly improbable' they could repeat their 2022 local election performance, where they won over 1,100 seats. The analysis concludes that Reform UK has emerged as a genuine political force in the capital for the first time, signalling a potential realignment of London politics.
