A dramatic new opinion poll has placed Pauline Hanson's One Nation party level with the Coalition on primary voter support, signalling a seismic shift in the Australian political landscape following the Bondi Beach terror attack.
Polling Data Reveals Historic Shift
The latest DemosAU survey for Capital Brief shows both One Nation and the Coalition sitting at 23 per cent on primary votes. This marks a dramatic ascent for Hanson's party since December. The Labor Party has fallen to 29 per cent, its lowest primary vote since the May 2025 election. The Greens hold 12 per cent, with independents and other minor parties attracting 13 per cent.
When preference flows from the last federal election are applied, Labor holds a narrow lead of 52 to 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, indicating an extremely tight contest. The poll assumes 74.5 per cent of One Nation voters would again direct their preferences to the Coalition.
Hanson's Resurgence and Coalition Crisis
Speaking to the Daily Mail on Friday, Pauline Hanson claimed there has always been "quiet support" for her party across the nation. "It's becoming more open now, as increasing numbers of Australians despair over the direction our country is heading under Labor," she stated. "More Australians are sensing that One Nation represents a real alternative."
This surge in support for Hanson and her party follows the Bondi Beach attack, which has refocused political debate on national security and migration. Meanwhile, the Coalition is facing its worst crisis in four decades. A separate Newspoll quarterly analysis for The Australian shows the Coalition's primary vote at 24 per cent, its lowest since polling began in 1985.
Leadership Ratings and Defection Threats
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's job performance rating is measured at 29 per cent positive, 30 per cent neutral, and 41 per cent negative. Opposition Leader Sussan Ley scores 17 per cent positive, 55 per cent neutral, and 28 per cent negative. Despite his declining approval, Albanese remains the preferred prime minister, leading Ley 42 per cent to 29.
Recent polling also indicates a dramatic turnaround in public likeability for Hanson and her high-profile recruit, Barnaby Joyce. Joyce's rating jumped from -22 to -4 after quitting the Nationals to join One Nation, while Hanson has moved from negative to positive territory for the first time.
It is understood that other federal Coalition MPs are considering defecting to One Nation later this year, following Joyce's departure. While the Coalition has the most to lose from One Nation's surge, Labor could also face challenges in a handful of regional seats, including Hunter, where a hypothetical head-to-head contest between Labor and One Nation produced a 50–50 split in the poll.
