Labour has dropped behind the Conservatives in the polls for the first time since the general election, according to a YouGov survey for The Times. The poll, conducted on Sunday and Monday, puts Labour on 17 per cent, two points ahead of the Greens but behind the Tories on 19 per cent and Reform UK on 26 per cent.
The timing is a blow to Sir Keir Starmer, who used a Sunday morning television interview to launch a campaign against the high cost of living. He also warned rivals inside Labour not to move against him, saying that would “gift” Nigel Farage the next general election.
Labour faces potentially disastrous results in local, Scottish and Welsh elections in May. At the end of October, polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice warned Labour is “in severe trouble in Wales” after losing the by-election in the traditionally Labour seat of Caerphilly.
The poll will make it harder for Starmer to win over disgruntled MPs, who have forced U-turns on issues such as the farmer inheritance tax. For Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, the poll signals the first time her party has overtaken Labour since their landslide defeat in 2024.
Starmer has called for cabinet discipline, telling senior ministers that their challenge for 2026 is to show “hard work, focus and determination” to help squeezed households. He said: “At the next general election we will be judged on whether we’ve delivered on things that really matter – do people feel better off, are public services improving, and do people feel more safe and secure in their own community.”
