Sir Keir Starmer's Labour government has suffered a significant blow, falling behind the Conservative Party in a major opinion poll for the first time since the 2024 general election. The survey, conducted as the Prime Minister attempted a new year relaunch, reveals a deeply challenging political landscape just months before pivotal elections across the UK.
Polling Numbers Paint Bleak Picture for Labour
According to a YouGov poll for The Times, taken on Sunday and Monday, Labour's support has slumped to just 17 per cent. This places them not only behind the Conservatives on 19 per cent, but also significantly behind Nigel Farage's Reform UK, which leads the poll on 26 per cent. The results show Labour is perilously close to being overtaken by the Liberal Democrats on 16 per cent and the Green Party on 15 per cent.
The timing is particularly damaging for Sir Keir, who had just used a lengthy Sunday morning television interview to unveil a fresh campaign aimed at tackling the high cost of living. The poll suggests this message has so far failed to resonate with a disillusioned electorate.
Starmer's Warning and Mounting Pressure
Facing intense speculation about his leadership, the Prime Minister issued a stark warning to internal critics within his own party. He stated that any move against him would effectively "gift" the next general election to Nigel Farage. This plea for unity underscores the severe difficulties confronting his embattled administration.
The polling data will make it harder for Sir Keir to manage his increasingly disgruntled parliamentary party. Labour MPs have already forced the government into a series of difficult policy reversals, most notably on farmer inheritance tax just before Christmas.
May Elections Loom as Critical Test
The poll casts a long shadow over the upcoming elections in May, which are now viewed as a make-or-break moment for the Labour leadership. The party faces potentially disastrous results in local council elections across England, as well as in the devolved parliament elections in Scotland and Wales.
These concerns are not new. At the end of October, leading polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice warned Labour was "in severe trouble in Wales" following the loss of the traditionally safe seat of Caerphilly in a by-election. Similar alarms have been sounded regarding the contests for Holyrood and English councils.
In contrast, the survey offers a glimmer of hope for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, marking the first time her party has overtaken Labour since their landslide defeat in 2024. Sir Keir has urged cabinet discipline, telling senior ministers that their 2026 challenge is to demonstrate that "hard work, focus and determination" can improve life for financially squeezed households.
Addressing global uncertainties, including tensions with Donald Trump's US over Greenland, the Prime Minister insisted the domestic cost of living remained the government's core focus. He stated that at the next general election, the public will judge the government on whether people feel better off, if services like the NHS are improving, and if communities feel safer.
