A new poll commissioned by the Just for Scotland campaign group has revealed that Scottish Labour could receive a significant electoral boost from SNP and Green voters if it severed ties with the UK Labour Party. The survey, conducted by FindOutNow, found that 25% of Scottish voters would be more likely to vote for an independent Scottish Labour, while 24% would be less likely and 51% were unsure.
Breakdown by party support
Among SNP voters at the 2026 Holyrood election, 43% said they would be more likely to back Scottish Labour if it were separate, 18% less likely, and 39% didn’t know. For Scottish Green voters, 44% were more likely, 11% less likely, and 45% unsure. In contrast, Reform and Conservative supporters were less likely to vote for an independent Scottish Labour.
The poll also tested support for a new “Scotland-only” progressive party that champions devolution and closer alignment with Europe. Among Holyrood voters, 74% of SNP supporters and 72% of Scottish Green voters said they would potentially consider voting for such a party. However, only 39% of current Labour voters said they would consider it, with 41% opposed and 20% undecided.
Pressure for change
Jack McConnel, a former Holyrood candidate and leading voice for separation, warned that Scottish Labour faces extinction unless it breaks away. “This is a wake-up call. Only a total break from UK Labour, ideally with a name change, will convince voters that our party is firmly on Scotland’s side,” he said. “Our party will be extinct by the end of next decade on our average loss of 6.5 seats in every Scottish Parliament election.”
McConnel argued that the party has tried swapping personnel, modifying strategy, and adjusting policy platforms but continues to lose. “Further autonomy within Labour is a non-starter: previous moves have convinced no-one. We keep losing,” he added.
Context of UK Labour leadership change
The poll comes as Andy Burnham becomes UK Labour leader after Keir Starmer quit last month. Scottish Labour, led by Anas Sarwar, lost its fifth consecutive Holyrood election to the SNP in May, with Sarwar’s allies blaming Starmer. The relationship between Sarwar and Starmer has nosedived since 2024.
The Scottish Labour Executive (SEC) is currently conducting a post-election review that includes examining the party’s relationship with UK Labour. McConnel’s Just for Scotland group is calling on the SEC to seriously explore models of separation, citing examples from other countries where parties are aligned on values but run separately.
“Scottish Labour was at its height when it was seen as the defender of Scotland and champion of devolution. Embracing that spirit is the only way to show we’re firmly on Scotland’s side,” McConnel said.
Poll methodology
The FindOutNow poll surveyed over 1,000 Scots between 9 and 15 July 2026.
