Nigel Farage hailed sweeping election wins for Reform UK as a 'historic shift in British politics' on a day when the populist party made gains at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives. Reform made advances in heartland areas of both parties, clocking up substantial early results in the English local elections by taking control of Essex county council, Havering – its first London local authority – and Sunderland city council.
However, the results were not without setbacks, for example in Harlow, a past general election bellwether, while one prominent pollster suggested the party may have peaked and that Farage would have reason to be 'privately worried'. The elections expert Peter Kellner said that while Reform was likely to end up with gains of more than 1,000 seats overall, there were some warning signs. 'Reform may well be on course for a record number of gains by any party in any elections, and in normal circumstances this would be astonishing. But if you compare it with a year ago it seems both in terms of seats and vote shares they are not going to do as well,' he said.
Reform won 41% of all seats contested across England in last year’s local elections, while this year’s tally appeared by Friday afternoon to be about 35%. 'We have that record on recent polls and elections, and it seems clear that Reform has peaked,' Kellner said. Any further slips in support would make a general election majority on this share of the vote much more difficult.
Reform’s vote share in English council seats so far has grown the most in areas with greater socioeconomic deprivation, early analysis by the Guardian showed. Figures from 691 wards show the party gained by an average of 20 percentage points in the least deprived areas and 30 percentage points in the most deprived areas.
Asked on LBC radio if Reform could form a government without winning big cities and metropolitan areas, Farage said: 'Oh, yes … every party has areas where it’s weak and where it’s strong.' He insisted his party was competitive across vast geographical swathes.
